Despite continued warnings about an impending recession, the economy looks likely to avoid such a setback in 2020 ”” and possibly through 2021, according to Webster Bank Senior Vice President Steve Andrews.
Andrews made his predictions during the Norwalk Chamber of Commerce”™s annual Economic Outlook presentation held Jan. 14 at the DoubleTree by Hilton Hotel Norwalk and sponsored by the bank.
Andrews”™ outlook came with the caveat that a “black swan” event ”” by definition almost impossible to predict ”” could knock his expectations awry. He added: “The election will be a game-changer if we shift back to higher taxes and more regulation. Assuming there”™s no change in November, I think we”™ll probably go another couple of years without a slowdown.”
The executive said the national economy “looks pretty good right now,” especially when compared with the state of the world a year ago when the S&P 500 shed 11% in December, the Republicans lost in the midterms and the trade war with China was gathering force.
With a mutually acceptable end to that trade war reportedly imminent, continued gains in jobs and employment figures and a low inflation rate, Andrews said the “rose-colored glasses” he”™s been accused of wearing in the past continue to fit him just fine. He said the biggest immediate problem facing the U.S. economy “is trying to find quality workers” to fill the jobs available.
Consumer confidence and spending are generally up significantly compared to recent history, he added, while disposable income as a percentage of debt is comparable to what the nation saw during the boom years of the 1980s.
Andrews noted that the U.S. seems to be weathering some black swans better than it used to, remarking that the recent turmoil in Iran and Iraq ”” which once would have sent oil prices skyrocketing past $100 per barrel “overnight” ”” instead resulted in a bump of a few dollars. That is thanks to the nation being better positioned on the world stage.
“If Texas was a stand-alone country, it would be the fourth-largest oil producer in the world today,” he said.
Andrews concluded by saying that one of the keys to the continued strength of the economy was that the Federal Reserve must remain on the sidelines, which it appears willing to do, at least for now.
“Recoveries don”™t die of old age,” he declared. “The Fed murders it.”
Andrews was followed by Brian Bidolli, newly hired executive director of the Norwalk Redevelopment Agency. Urban redevelopment will continue to grow in scope and importance, he said, noting that on a national level there are 76 million baby boomers with Generation Y (millennials) in second place at 67 million.
As a result, Bidolli said, cities like Norwalk must increasingly cater to two distinct types of residents, with the majority of growth in residential housing being driven by empty nesters. Coupled with the fact that more millennials are choosing to marry later and have fewer children, the need to get in front of growing trends becomes even more urgent, he added.
“Norwalk has the infrastructure and the political will” to flourish in that environment, he said.
