Highs and lows: Charting the future of the Mid-Hudson economy

Michael Oates, president and CEO of the nonprofit Hudson Valley Economic Development Corp., is optimistic about the region’s economic recovery from the Covid shutdown, especially in the areas of real estate and development.

“We’re seeing some very strong activity within the real estate community,” Oates told the Business Journal, explaining that he’s gotten feedback that real estate offices have been receiving a lot of inquiries on commercial properties as well as residential.

“Rand Commercial is one of our board members and they’re telling us that they’re extremely busy. They have a lot of listings and a lot of people reaching out to see properties and try to make things happen.”

Oates said that major developments in the region such as Legoland in Goshen, the Amazon warehouse being built in Montgomery that could bring 800 jobs to the region and the $500 million Bellefield at Historic Hyde Park development across from the Culinary Institute of America on Route 9 hold promise to help in the regional economy’s recovery.

“This summer was not the time to open up a venue like Legoland, so the company is adjusting to the realities of what Covid brought to the market, but they still are moving forward,” Oates said. “Simone Development, for instance, which now has property up at Stewart Airport, has been very active and I think that level of expertise that Joe Simone and his team bring to the market will allow Stewart Airport to come into its own and kind of be the international airport that the region needs it to be.”

Oates noted that infrastructure work is underway at the Bellefield site, where plans call for construction of a culinary, tourism, manufacturing, research and development and hospitality center on part of the 340-acre property.

“I just met with Tom Mulroy, the owner of the property, and he’s very excited about the development of a hotel on the site and starting to kick off the residential component,” Oates said. “I think they’ve successfully come through the challenges that hit the market in the last six months or so.”

Oates said that residential real estate has seen increased activity as people from New York City look for less-dense surroundings.

“The residential side is on fire and that is a direct result of the exodus of folks out of New York City, whether it’s a desire to look for a better school system or have more property and deal with the effects that living in New York had as it relates to Covid,” Oates said. “We’re going to see more and more businesses that will follow suit. I think one of the things that the Hudson Valley is very strong on is encouraging entrepreneurship and as we start to get more and more folks moving out of the city we’re going to see some business come with them.”

Oates expressed a belief that the economy will continue to move forward as society gets a better handle on Covid.

“It’s just going to take some time. We’re going to have to navigate, for instance, what the school openings are going to look like,” Oates said.

“Will there be outbreaks that will happen? Can we contain and control? We’re doing a lot of work at HVEDC with our hospital providers who are trying to help the business community provide a safe environment for customers and workers. Our strong workforce hasn’t gone away. Our assets remain strong. We’re well-positioned to deal with the post-Covid world and we just have to be smart.”

The Business Journal’s interview with Oates came shortly after New York state’s Mid-Hudson Regional Economic Development Council (MHREDC) held a meeting on Aug. 21. The 49 members, substitutes and state and local government figures who participated reviewed what the pandemic had been doing to the economy of the region.

Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul thanked the regional council members for their leadership during the pandemic and noted that as of the date of the meeting New York had experienced 13 consecutive days with a Covid infection rate of under 1%.

Commissioner Roberta Reardon of the state Department of Labor said that the pandemic has had a tsunami effect on the unemployment insurance infrastructure.

Donald P. Christian, regional chair of the MHREDC, reported that the state has asked all 10 of its regional economic development councils to develop a regional economic recovery strategy by Sept. 25, which subsequently will be published online.

The purpose of the documents is to rethink what each region can do to build on its previous strategic plans. He reported that the Mid-Hudson council will review the existing strategic plan and recalibrate to reflect the new environment, identify the sectors of the economy that have proven to be resilient, and highlight what is working and what needs to be retooled.

Johny Nelson, labor market analyst for the Department of Labor and Jonathan Drapkin, president and CEO of the organization Pattern for Progress, provided a dose of the current reality.

Nelson reported that in July, private sector employment in the Hudson Valley declined by 13.9% or 114,500 jobs, which brought private sector job count to its lowest July level since 1998. Job losses were recorded across all industry sectors, but the top four sectors were:

• Leisure and hospitality, down 45,900, the largest number of job losses over the period;
• Trade, transportation and utilities down 18,200 jobs, with most losses centered in the retail trade component;
• Professional and business services down 15,500 jobs over the period; and
• Educational and health services, the region’s largest employment sector, down 10,600 jobs between July 2019 and July 2020. Job losses were centered in the health care and social assistance component.

Year-over-year in July 2020, the two industry sectors least impacted by the Covid-19 pandemic in terms of job losses were financial activities and information, which lost about 2,600 jobs. In information, a positive note was that Charter Communications is looking to hire 1,500 employees in the state by the end of the year, with 200 in its call center in the town of Wallkill.

Drapkin said that many Mid-Hudson region residents remain focused on keeping their homes, having access to health care, food security and maintaining income from either a job or some form subsidy.