The economy has depended for the last several decades not on what we need but what we want ”“ bigger houses, a new car and more stuff, much of which will wind up in a yard sale.
The U.S. GDP is composed of 70 percent consumer spending, meaning that in order to get the economy back on its feet the public has to keep spending whether people have the money or not. With personal debt currently at astronomical levels, this is a truly implausible scenario.
Job creators
With the entire economy based on cheap oil, a hard-nosed assessment of where future jobs will appear is overdue. The unemployment rate is actually well above 10 percent, so we need to de-emphasize luxury and start thinking local where the long-range growth of jobs is likely to occur. But first a look at the large job creators, only possible if the politics can be overcome.
If there is any stimulus money left in Washington it should be spent on building up the infrastructure, which is acquiring the status of a third-world country. Building bridges, rails and repairing roads provide well-paying jobs, creating a multiplier effect in the economy and there is something to show for the expenditure of taxpayer money ”“ projects that assure the continued mobility of the nation.
Obviously, alternative-energy production should become a prime job creator. Unfortunately, the New York State Legislature didn”™t get that message and left town without signing a bill to back the nascent solar industry. This must be rectified in the next session.
All industries that are able to create power without petroleum should be encouraged to forge ahead. To those who get upset about the cost of alternative fuels bear in mind that fossil fuels are heavily subsidized, including nuclear power, keeping them relatively cheap, while alternative-fuel producers barely survive in the struggle to move the nation toward a sustainable economy. Regrettably, politics directs financial support toward the venture that will make the most money for certain constituents instead of the venture that will bring the most benefit to the public.
The coming age
Here are some trends, predictors of future jobs: Personal vehicles are likely to become more of a luxury item and since the production of road vehicles constitutes a substantial chunk of the economy this is not the place for future job security. Train and bus service will become an even more crucial part of daily life as the cost of fuel climbs. Though this sector is losing transport jobs in the long term these jobs should grow.
There are more encouraging trends in people-powered transportation. A growing number of bikeways are appearing, not just for the weekend bikers but for the commuting crowd. Better walkways to and from destinations normally reached by a car are being developed. A new way to work ”“ kayaking from Rockland to Westchester as a short cut to the train. At least two hardy souls have made that route a part of their morning commute to Metro-North in Dobbs Ferry.
When I went to high school in the last century there was a course called “Home Economics,” which was naturally only for girls. We learned the basics of sewing and cooking. Seems a bit quaint today, but these homely skills are showing promise of growing interest in the home. Consider the locavore movement ”“ eating food grown locally or in your own garden is growing exponentially.
As the end of the oil age approaches we will see the emergence of “the age of the entrepreneur” and we don”™t mean those whose main interest is making a quick million but enterprises that meet people”™s needs. E.F. Schumacher”™s book from the 1970s, “Small Is Beautiful: A Study of Economics as if People Mattered,” got it right. He was one of the first economists to question the appropriateness of using the GNP to measure human well-being, emphasizing that “the aim ought to be to obtain the maximum amount of well-being with the minimum of consumption.” Surely, Schumacher is the man for the coming age.
Surviving the Future explores a wide range of subjects to assist businesses in adapting to a new energy age. Maureen Morgan, a transit advocate, is on the board of Federated Conservationists of Westchester. Reach her at maureenmorgan10@verizon.net.
