Connecticut business executives and advisers do not expect 2015 to bring major positive change to the state”™s economy and have mixed views about their own business prospects, according to survey results issued by the Weston-based Connecticut Turnaround Management Association, a nonprofit association of corporate renewal professionals with a national affiliation.
The survey received 59 replies. A majority, 56.1 percent, said the Connecticut economy is stable. Just 5.3 percent said the economy is growing, while 38.6 percent said it is declining.
The executives cited four notably strong business arenas in the survey: health care, pharmaceuticals and bioscience, finance and defense.
“Our survey sampled attendees at our events and we believe they reflect a cross section of the business community throughout the state,” said Philip G. Kane, Turnaround Management Association regional president, in a statement. “The overall view is one of tempered optimism ”” that things will remain the same or get a bit better but that a widespread revival will continue to elude us.”
The poll responses were tallied Dec. 2-11 and included data gathered from Turnaround Management Association events in 2014, including a Nov. 25 gathering at Fairfield University that featured U.S. Rep. Jim Himes, among others.
Survey respondents identified themselves as working at law and accounting firms (45.6 percent), lending (15.8 percent), private equity and investment banking (12.3 percent) and corporate (8.8 percent). Other single-digit industries in which respondents worked included media, education, insurance, economic development, real estate, information technology, and senior and asset management.
The factors affecting business that ranked highest in executives”™ minds, according to the survey and in order, included state taxes, cited by 19.7 percent of respondents, work force quality (11.5 percent), labor costs (10.8 percent) and unfunded state mandates (10.2 percent).
Looking further out, the executives tipped the scales toward optimism.
A substantial majority (72.4 percent) said the state”™s overall economic condition is going to change in three years”™ time, with 51.7 percent saying the change will be for the better. About a quarter of respondents (27.6 percent) said that conditions will remain the same and one in five (20.7 percent) said they expect a downturn.
Asked for their views of Gov. Dannel Malloy”™s performance in his first term in office, 31.6 percent of respondents said he had been bad for business and 42.1 percent said he had made no difference. Only 26.3 percent said the Democratic governor had been good for Connecticut business. Malloy recently defeated Greenwich businessman Tom Foley for a second term, taking the state by 2.5 percentage points, but taking Fairfield County by just 16 votes: 127,213 for Malloy and 127,197 for Foley.
The executives appeared optimistic about their own business growth during 2015, but not necessarily from within the state. Some 37.9 percent of respondents expect an uptick in in-state revenues, but 39.7 percent expect Connecticut revenues to remain static and 22.4 percent foresee a decrease in in-state activity.
A majority (56.9 percent) said their business”™ overall revenue compared with year-end 2014 will likely increase. However, a 43.1 percent said their revenue would either remain the same (36.2 percent) or decrease (6.9 percent).
The executives foresaw employment gains in Connecticut during 2015. Some 37.5 percent said their Connecticut employment will likely increase, compared with year-end 2014. Another 50 percent said it would remain the same, while 12.5 percent said they foresee a likely decrease.
Most respondents (62.5 percent) indicated the capital needs of their businesses will not greatly increase. A majority (53.6 percent) said their capital needs would remain the same and another 8.9 percent foresaw a decrease. An increased need for capital was cited by 37.5 percent of respondents.
Borrowing during 2015 will be more expensive, survey respondents indicated. A majority (71.4 percent) expect interest rates available to businesses next year will increase, with the rest (28.6 pecent) saying they will remain the same.
The executives most frequently identified financial services (27.5 percent), health care (23.9 percent), pharma/biotech (15.6 percent) and defense (11 percent) as local industries that will provide the greatest growth for Connecticut in 2015.
A substantial majority of the respondents (73.6 percent) disagreed with the proposition that “during 2015 more Connecticut businesses will enter bankruptcy or cease operations than in 2014.” A minority (26.4 percent) agreed that more would enter bankruptcy or cease operations.
The respondents identified themselves as company principal (18.2 percent), vice president (18.2 percent), partner (16.4 percent) and senior vice president (12.7 percent). Other executive slots like CFO and company president occupied single-digit spots among respondents. Almost all respondents, 98.3 percent, lived in Connecticut. Two-thirds (67.2 percent) lived in Fairfield County.
Established in 1988, the Turnaround Management Association has more than 9,300 members in 49 chapters, including 31 in North America.
