The holiday shopping season got off to a mixed start on the so-called Black Friday after Thanksgiving, according to BIGresearch. While store traffic was up 4.8 percent from 2006, consumers spent an average of $347, down 3.5 percent from a year ago ”“ though still up 14.5 percent from 2005.
The National Retail Federation is sticking by its projection that holiday retail sales will be up 4 percent this year, but said its analysts will not be able to make a definitive statement on whether the season has been a success until mid-December.
The Connecticut Retail Merchants Association does not issue formal polls of its members on the holiday shopping season; across the border, the Retail Council of New York State said just one in five retailers fared worse at the start of this year”™s holiday shopping compared with a year ago.
Regional retailers reported much of their holiday sales of 2006 were generated in the second half of last December.
Retailers could use some happy tidings ”“ after starting the year at 500, the S&P Retail Index dipped below 400 briefly in late November, its lowest level since March 2005. Published by Standard & Poor”™s, the index includes many of the country”™s biggest chains, including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Staples Inc. and Albertson”™s Inc. As of last week, the index had clawed its way back up to 435, but retail analysts on Wall Street issued glum outlooks for major retail stocks.
While the U.S. Census Bureau reported retail sales nationally were up 4.8 percent in September from the year previous, major U.S. chains reported just a 2.2 percent rise in sales in November over the same period in 2006, according to an update issued last week by Redbook Research.
Unlike New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, Connecticut is not home to any bellwether retail company. Danbury-based Ethan Allen Interiors Inc., a furniture store company that is the largest retailer based in Connecticut, has seen its own stock (NYSE: ETH) fall nearly 20 percent this year, closing November below $29 per share.
Ethan Allen sales were down 6 percent to just over $1 billion for its fiscal year ending in June, which the company blamed on a softer retail environment for home furnishings. Despite continued weakness caused by consumer credit concerns, Ethan Allen managed to increase revenue 2 percent in its fiscal first quarter from the year previous.
In the metro New York City area, retailers reported mixed results for October, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, with two unspecified major chains anticipating their holiday sales will be flat at best. Retailers indicated they are offering steeper promotions than a year ago.
Retail prices could creep upward in 2008, according to Dave Sievers, a retail industry analyst with Stamford-based Archstone Consulting, thanks in part to a lower dollar that is making imports costlier.
For Greenwich”™s so-called Rodeo Drive East, where price is no object, shoppers might get a glimpse of the future at the National Retail Federation”™s annual convention, scheduled for Jan. 13-16 at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York City.
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The conference will include a “store of the future” that showcases emerging retail technologies, including “touch window” shopping from the street, which has been used by Ralph Lauren at a London store; tabletop computers such as that proposed by Microsoft Corp., which can scan items and display touch-screen information; and cell-based product locator beacons.
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