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(CNN) — President Joe Biden’s climate law is on the chopping block as Republicans prepare to have full control in Washington.
But it’s not just Democrats gearing up to protect the Inflation Reduction Act’s clean energy policies. President-elect Donald Trump is out on a limb within even his own party as he vows to the kill clean energy tax subsidies that automakers, the fossil fuel industry and Republican lawmakers have become increasingly amenable toward over the past two years.
“We need to look at the IRA, and instead of taking a sledgehammer to it, take a scalpel to it,” Republican Rep. Buddy Carter of Georgia told CNN. “There are some good parts … There are parts of it that do make sense.”
The “good parts” for Republicans are the hundreds of billions of dollars being funneled into clean energy projects, the overwhelming majority of which are going to Republican districts.
Close to 80% of the $243 billion-worth of projects that are either completed or under construction are in GOP districts. The same goes for another $435 billion in clean energy projects companies have announced but have not yet built, according to an exclusive CNN analysis of data from the nonpartisan Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
The data shows Biden’s climate law has had a profound impact on the American economy in its first two years, said Trevor Houser, a partner at Rhodium Group, a nonpartisan thinktank.
But with Trump gunning to repeal the law and Congressional Republicans looking for ways to offset new tax cuts next year, the $435 billion in new, not-yet-built projects is increasingly vulnerable.
“If that investment was to dry up, it would significantly impact the economic prospects particularly of the rural and manufacturing communities where most of that investment has been flowing,” Houser told CNN.
In other words, if Republicans successfully repeal Biden’s climate and clean energy law, their districts stand to lose the most.
Carter is far from the only Republican angling to defend the clean energy funds against Trump. He’s one of 18 House Republicans who signed a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson this summer strongly urging Johnson to not repeal the climate law.
“A full repeal would create a worst-case scenario where we would have spent billions of taxpayer dollars and received next to nothing in return,” Republicans wrote in the letter, adding they had heard from industry and constituents “who fear the energy tax regime will once again be turned on its head due to Republican repeal efforts.”
Some Republicans on that letter lost their races for reelection to Democrats, but Carter told CNN there are “enough” lawmakers who share the view “to make a difference” when it comes time to vote.
“I don’t think it has to be many,” he said. “Obviously, we don’t have a big majority and it’s going to be very tight.”
Biden’s climate law is a manufacturing bill by design, reopening dormant plants and opening new ones to build electric vehicles and their batteries.
The bill also has generous subsidies for wind and solar farms, nuclear power, and newer industries like hydrogen and carbon capture, which aims to scrub climate pollution out of smokestack exhaust before it reaches the atmosphere.
Carter’s Georgia district is home to a massive Hyundai EV and battery production plant that was funded by the IRA and is now open. Hyundai spent nearly $7 billion to build the plant, which is expected to create over 8,000 jobs.
The district of North Carolina Rep. Richard Hudson — the head of House Republicans’ campaign committee — has seen more investment than any other, thanks to a colossal Toyota car battery plant being built there. Rhodium and MIT data shows Toyota has already pushed more than $8.2 billion into building the factory and has pledged to spend $5.7 billion more as it plans to triple the factory’s size.
“Those facilities are going to be creating a lot of jobs and economic growth,” said Adrian Deveny, founder of consulting firm Climate Vision and a former top Senate staffer who led the IRA clean energy negotiations. “If you have legislation that repeals the tax credits, those facilities are going to stop construction, or they’ll never even start construction.”
The bill also contained billions in consumer subsidies to help millions of households save money on solar panels, electric vehicles, appliances and home insulation. The conventional wisdom among many experts is these consumer subsidies could be more vulnerable to Republican repeal efforts than the industry money, but subsidies like the EV tax credits help drive demand for electric vehicles – necessary to keep factories in GOP districts open.
“The extent to which (House Republicans) fight to save the EV tax credits, I think really will come down to what are they hearing from those automakers about how important those tax credits are for those manufacturing facilities to be able to continue,” Houser said.
Conservative groups and companies who are using the clean energy tax credits are already starting to lobby lawmakers to save them.
“The need to explain what the tax credits do, particularly in the long run, is incredibly important,” Heather Reams, the president of the right-leaning nonprofit Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions, told CNN. “To demonstrate that these tax credits are really a net profit for the economy, that really is the name of the game.”
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