BY KEN DIXON
Hearst Connecticut Media
It’s not daylight, or a major shift, but Gov. Dannel P. Malloy has nosed out in front of challenger Tom Foley, according to the latest Quinnipiac University poll that shows increased negative feelings from voters about the Republican investor from Greenwich.
Less than two weeks from the end of their aggressive race for governor, Malloy and Foley seemed locked in a repeat of the 2010 race that Malloy, a Democrat, won by just 6,404 votes, the poll indicates.
Malloy is more popular among women and Foley has a near-equal edge among men, the poll finds.
The 43-43 percent tie of Oct. 8 has made a tiny move in Malloy’s favor, but his new 43-42 percent edge over Foley is well within the margin of error among more than 1,000 likely voters.
Petitioning candidate Joe Visconti of West Hartford retains his 9 percent from earlier in the month, heading into Thursday night’s televised debate on NBC Connecticut in which Foley has declined to participate.
Foley’s refusal to attend the debate comes at a time when his favorability ratings in the poll are declining. While Malloy’s negative 42-50 percent favorability rating is the same as earlier in the month, voters show Foley with a negative 40-46 percent favorability, down from his earlier 41-39Â percent.
“For the first time, more voters have a negative view of him than a positive view,” said Douglas Schwartz, director of the poll, of Foley. “The more voters get to know him, the less they like him. The good news for Foley is that Malloy’s favorability is actually slightly worse.”
The new poll shows that it’s a flat-footed 45 percent tie between Malloy and Foley if the conservative Visconti were to drop out, but he has promised to stay in the race until the end.
Malloy leads among women with 51-32 percent and Foley has a 53-34 percent edge among men. Unaffiliated voters are nearly split, with 38 percent for Foley, 36 percent for Malloy and 16 percent for Visconti.
Schwartz said that with less than two weeks until the election, 81 percent of likely voters who support a candidate say their mind is made up, but 18 percent say they might change their mind.
“The race for Connecticut governor looks very much like it will go down to the wire ”“ again,” Schwartz said.
“Republican Tom Foley has to be concerned that this is the first likely voter poll in which Gov. Dannel Malloy has a numerical edge, even though it’s razor-thin. As expected, Democrats and Republicans are coming home with both Malloy and Foley winning at least 80 percent of their bases, but the independent voters are really up for grabs, with independent Joe Visconti now taking 16 percent of the independent vote. The gender gap is now a huge 38 points, with men going to Foley by 19 points and women for Malloy by 19Â points.”
The poll of 1,010 likely voters was conducted Oct. 14-20 and has a margin of error of 3.1Â percent.
Hearst Connecticut Media includes four daily newspapers: Connecticut Post, Greenwich Time, The Advocate (Stamford) and The News Times (Danbury). See ctpost.com for more from this reporter.
