Amid high inflation, rising interest rates and low consumer confidence, there is good reason to be pessimistic about the state of the U.S. economy for the rest of 2022 and 2023. But despite these challenging conditions, one component of the economy that has continued to deliver good news generally is the labor market.
The unemployment rate in the U.S. sat at 3.5% in September, one of the lowest figures in more than half a century. Despite low unemployment, the economy has added jobs every month dating from January 2021. These conditions have been advantageous for workers. The “Great Resignation” brought a historic volume of job switching in 2021 and 2022 as people sought out better job opportunities. This tightness in the labor market has pressured employers to raise wages and offer improved working conditions and benefits to compete for talent.
The trend of reduced discharge rates extends to businesses in every field with at least one notable exception ”“ journalism. Employers in industries like arts, entertainment, recreation, retail trade and hospitality, which were highly volatile in earlier phases of the pandemic, are now reluctant to let go of employees. Other industries that could contract during a potential recession, like construction, are also discharging employees less than in the steadier economic conditions of 2019. Average monthly discharge rates are also down across businesses of all firm sizes.
While discharge rates are consistently low across the country, some states are doing better than others. New York ranks eighth among those in which workers are likely to keep their jobs.
Here is a summary of the data for New York state:
- Average monthly discharge rate:”¯0.81%
- Average monthly discharges:”¯76,375
- Average monthly total separations:”¯267,250
- Discharges as a percentage of total separations:”¯28.6%
For reference, here are the statistics for the entire United States:
- Average monthly discharge rate:”¯0.91%
- Average monthly discharges:”¯1,393,875
- Average monthly total separations:”¯6,016,875
- Discharges as a percentage of total separations:”¯23.2%
Connecticut came in 20th, with an average monthly discharge rate of 0.91%; average monthly discharges of 14,875; average monthly total separations of 56,375 ;and 26.4% discharges amid total separations.
The data used in this analysis is from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. To determine the states where existing workers are least likely to lose their jobs, researchers at HireAHelper calculated the average monthly discharge rate across all nonfarm workers in 2022. In the event of a tie, the state with the lower number of total discharges was ranked higher. A discharge represents all involuntary separations, including layoffs, firings and terminations. Total separations, on the other hand, includes both involuntary and voluntary separations, such as quits and retirement.
