March was again a weak month for the Westchester County job market, with a nominal 1 percent decrease in job posting activity versus February across multiple industries and towns. As such, with the first quarter of 2014 concluded, the county has little more than a 1 percent growth in job market activity.
Some key items of note regarding March:
Ӣ White Plains continues to show itself as the hub of job market activity, followed this month by Yonkers and Tarrytown.
Ӣ The industries most actively hiring this past month continued to be retail, services and health care.
Ӣ Top job categories were sales, health services and accountancy.
The overall tepid condition of the market for the first three months of the year suggests we still are stuck in a period of minimal growth, treading water as we wait for some spark to yield any momentum. More concerning is that the likely catalysts for any such spark are unlikely to present themselves anytime soon. Specifically, with election season upon us and Gov. Andrew Cuomo announcing his run for a second term, the likelihood of any major job market stimulus programs hitting the market are slim at best, with most state programs for growth focusing on other counties.
On the national scene, the most pressing item and one that will likely drive the job market in the second quarter continues to be the Affordable Care Act. Several major aspects of the ACA that require further definition and comment by the federal government are almost certainly going to be announced by July 1. The fear continues to be that over-reaching policies and regulations related to the ACA could result in a reduction in new job growth, especially if businesses see more costs heaped on them for each employee they engage. Recent announcements delaying the penalties some businesses would have faced Jan. 1, 2015, will help, but more needs to be clarified before we can truly assess the impact the ACA will likely have on hiring in 2014.
With one quarter in the books, I would say the outlook for 2014 is, at best, uncertain, this despite a relatively positive March national jobs report. It looks like more gradual to imperceptible progress is the likely outcome, with shifting sands beneath a very unstable infrastructure leaving us guessing, at least for a while to come. Stay tuned.
David Lewis is president/CEO of WestchesterCountyJobs.com, the region”™s most prolific job board with over 100,000 area visitors a month.
