Charting highs, lows, losses and gains, Frank Surdey sounds like a weatherman when he speaks. But Surdey instead follows the often stormy state economy.
As managing economist at the state Department of Labor”™s division of research and statistics, he not only analyzes the dynamics of the economy but tries to foster collaboration among the agencies dealing with economic development, work force initiatives and business.
The numbers are favorable for the Hudson Valley, he told a recent gathering of the Institute for Business Innovation, a networking group, at a meeting in Rhinebeck.
In October, the Hudson Valley had the state”™s lowest unemployment rate, 3.6 percent, compared with 4.4 percent for the state and nation. The region has a total labor force of 1.2 million people.
A downside to the low number is the lack of quality workers, making it difficult for firms to fulfill their needs, Surdey said.
The largest employment sector in the valley in 2006 was health care and social assistance, which accounted for almost 15 percent of the total jobs and had an average salary of almost $41,000. Local government, including public school workers, was second, with 13.4 percent of the total and an average salary of $52,000, followed by retail trade, with an average salary of $27,500; manufacturing, with a salary of $74,000; and accommodation and food service, with a salary of $18,000.
From 2003 to 2006, the sectors that grew the most were health care and social assistance, construction, finance and insurance, retail trade, and transportation and warehousing.
During the same period, the leading sectors in decline were manufacturing, information, federal government, utilities, wholesale trade, and arts, entertainment and recreation.
Manufacturing now accounts for about 60,000 jobs, a steep decline from the 104,000 jobs in the sector in 1990. Manufacturing has been declining in the region, state and nation for the past 17 years, with the trend expected to continue, albeit at a slower pace, Surdey said. Within manufacturing, the computer and semiconductor industries were projected to lead in job creation, with high average salaries.
The most important sector is professional business services, which “has had a tremendous ripple effect in respect to subcontractors,” Surdey said. Finance and insurance is another high-wage sector, which is growing but accounts for only 3.9 percent of total jobs in the region.
OUTS AND INS
Surdey offered a view on the valley”™s bedroom communities. Putnam County had the highest percentage ”“ 71 percent ”“ of residents who work outside the county. It was followed by Rockland with 45 percent; Greene, 43 percent; Westchester, 37 percent; Columbia, 36 percent; Orange, 34 percent; Sullivan and Ulster at 33 percent; and Dutchess the lowest with 30 percent.
Looking at the net commutation, Rockland had the highest level of out-commutation, at 31,300. Orange, Putnam and Westchester were in the 24,000 to 25,000 range. Ulster had a net of 17,000 people traveling outside the county to work and Dutchess slightly fewer, at 14,000 people. Greene, Columbia and Sullivan had fewer than 6,000 people commuting outside the county.
Comparative average wages ranged from a high of $74,000 in New York City to a low of approximately $32,000 in Greene, Sullivan and Columbia. Not surprisingly, Westchester had the highest average wage in the region, at $58,500, compared with $45,000 in Rockland, $43,000 in Dutchess, $42,000 in Putnam, $36,000 in Orange and $34,000 in Ulster.
CLUSTERS ON RISE
Clusters, groups of similar businesses in a concentrated area that export or sell their products or services outside the region and have a ripple effect in bringing wealth to the area, are an important contributor to the state”™s economy, Surdey said. Empire State Development Corp. has identified 60 clusters in the state, which account for a third of all jobs.
In 2005, 16 clusters were identified in the Hudson Valley. The five largest in terms of number of jobs were front office and producer services, travel and tourism, financial services, distribution, and communication, software and media services. The average wage for these ranged from $94,000 for front office to $31,000 for tourism, with distribution falling in the middle at $58,000. The cluster with the highest wage was electronics and imaging, at 109,000 jobs, which accounted for 18,000 jobs.
Back office and outsourcing was the fastest growing sector in the valley, with employment rates increasing 36.5 percent between 2000 and 2005. The other cluster with significant growth in the same time frame was biomedical, with 12.5 percent growth.
