(CNN) — Canada could retaliate against President-elect Donald Trump’s threatened tariffs by shutting down energy flows to the United States, a top Canadian official warned.
“We will go to the extent of cutting off their energy going down to Michigan, going down to New York State and over to Wisconsin,” Premier Doug Ford of Ontario, Canada’s largest province, threatened on Wednesday evening.
Ford warned that Canada must use “every tool in our toolbox” if Trump follows through on his threat to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian imports on his first day in office.
Given that Ontario is not a major producer of crude oil, Ford’s threat appeared to specifically apply to electricity the United States imports from Canada.
“Canadians get hurt, but I can assure you one thing: The Americans are going to feel the pain as well, and isn’t that unfortunate,” Ford said.
Trump’s proposed tariffs could plunge the Canadian economy into a painful recession. The threat from Ford shows how some in Canada are pushing for a forceful response that could temporarily disrupt power and fuel to some Americans.
Ford’s comments also raise the specter of broader retaliation from Canada that somehow disrupts the flow of oil imported into the United States, although analysts say such a move looks unlikely at this point.
A full-blown trade war between the United States and Canada could ultimately damage both economies, hurting consumers and businesses on either side of the border.
“This is a threat that shouldn’t be ignored. Canada doesn’t want to take this lying down,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
Experts said that any retaliation from Canada, including from the provinces, would need to get approved by the federal government in Ottawa.
The United States regularly imports hydropower from Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia. Canada is the leading source of imported electricity into the United States, although it represents a relatively small piece of the pie of total consumption.
Last year, the United States imported 38.9 million megawatt hours of electricity, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The vast majority of that – 33.2 million megawatt hours – came from Canada.
However, that represents less than 1% of annual US electricity consumption, according to the EIA.
Still, the United States and Canada have long relied on each other to meet demands for power during periods of peak demand or weak supply.
For instance, Canada imports US electricity when hydropower generation is low, such as during droughts.
“The trade is important to grid balancing – constantly matching electricity consumption to electricity production — and helping to shore up electricity supply,” the EIA said in a recent report.
The United States bought roughly $3.2 billion of power from Canada last year, down almost 30% from 2022.
“Power transmission lines linking the United States and Canada are part of a complex and highly interconnected power system, with connections spanning New England to the Pacific Northwest,” the EIA said.
A sudden change in that close relationship could create headaches for US states along the border with Canada that at times rely on electricity imports.
However, those problems would likely only be temporary, according to RJ Johnston, research director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy.
“I don’t see much vulnerability for the US,” said Johnston.
He pointed to abundant electricity resources in the United States and the option to shift power to regions that need it.
“Even in an extended outage the US has the ability to add more generation capacity in a relatively short period of time,” Johnston said.
Instead of electricity, Johnston said Canada could have more leverage over America in areas that are harder for US officials to make up for, including aluminum and nickel.
The importance of oil
Canada is also the leading source of America’s foreign oil.
Last year, the United States imported 1.4 million barrels of Canadian crude per day., making up more than half of the total 2.4 million barrels of US oil imports.
De Haan, the GasBuddy analyst, warned that some refineries in the Midwest and Great Lakes regions rely on Canadian crude to churn out gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. He said the loss of Canadian oil could jack up prices, at least temporarily, and make it hard for some gas stations to find fuel.
“I’d be more worried about supply than price,” he said.
Yet analysts are skeptical that Canada would fire this bullet in a trade war because its economy is so heavily reliant on oil production and on the United States to buy that crude.
Blocking the flow of oil to its biggest customer – the United States – would be shooting its own economy in the foot.
“Do I think that would ever happen? No, because it would hurt everyone involved,” said Robert Yawger, vice president of energy futures at Mizuho Securities.
However, the opening of the Trans Mountain Pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific Ocean does leave open the possibility that Canada could eventually start to sell significant amounts of oil to Japan, South Korea, China and other Asian nations.
“That’s why they built that pipeline: To have a plan B,” said Yawger.
It’s not clear how much the United States would be hurt by the loss of Canadian oil.
US oil production has skyrocketed over the past two decades because of the shale revolution. Domestic oil output is so high that the United States is now a leading exporter of oil.
Analysts say some of that oil that today gets shipped overseas could get diverted to stay in the United States if there was a loss of Canadian barrels.
While Ontario’s premier has floated the idea of cutting off electricity exports to America, it’s far from clear whether the major oil-producing provinces would be willing to do the same when it comes to the vital resource of oil.
“Wake me up when the mayor of Calgary or the premier of Alberta starts popping off threats like this,” said Yawger.
Danielle Smith, the premier of Alberta, made clear on Thursday there’s little appetite for such a move, saying she prefers a diplomatic approach.
“Under no circumstances will Alberta agree to cut off oil and gas exports,” Smith said.
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