Have you heard that one of the jobs of the future will be “space tour guide”? Don”™t laugh. Richard Branson is already in the space travel business and has a reputation for follow through. His Virgin Galactic space tourism venture is already piling up funds.
There is only one problem. When we are really ready for such fun will there be the energy available to get the spaceship off the pad? With airlines cutting back, going under or merging because of the cost of fuel, this dream may remain just that if energy availability projections are even a little bit accurate.
A further search through various job sites reveals a jobs future not dramatically different from today”™s job market with some notable differences. Retail is down, not surprisingly, technology is way up, also not surprisingly. The lack of tradesmen has also been noted but will become far more critical as today”™s tradesmen retire. Not glamorous jobs, to be sure, but essential to keep the economy functioning.
The overwhelming trend, according to the sites examined, is to lean on technology in all of its manifestations to solve the economic problems of the future. The trend is for a professional to have five or six jobs in a lifetime, which may entail residing in another country as part of the employment package. And, of course, you better be fluent in at least one other language to be employable in this global economy. Being the proud possessor of a master”™s degree will not even be enough. Lifetime learning will be the standard for those wishing to stay at the top once they get there.
Then there is the health care field, comprising 17 percent of the GDP. Jobs in health care will rise exponentially, reaching 20 percent in the near future, kicked up by the aging population and the growing health problems in the U.S. Forget how we were going to pay for the health care reform bill now stalled in Congress ”“ monumental health care costs and therefore jobs are clearly already in the pipeline. It is always assumed, of course, in discussions of future employment that the economy will continue to expand.
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Then I came upon the “Santa Cruz (CA) Weekly” blog in which the lead story was titled ”“ “Santa Cruz Group Gears Up for Life After Cheap Oil.” Here is the opposite view of the future jobs picture. Transition Santa Cruz is a part of the global “transition movement,” started in Totnes, England in 2007, by a Rob Hopkins, for the purpose of helping the people adjust to life after cheap oil. Hopkins recognized that the modern world will not be able to continue on its current expansive trajectory when the real limitations of the global oil supply kick in.
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Predictably, as soon as any limitations in our oil supply are mentioned all manner of explanations surface that purport to explain why this will not bring our economy to its knees. One of the more bizarre appeared in the Santa Cruz blog.
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According to a small group of theorists, the days of oil will never end because petroleum is a renewable resource produced by “a-biotic” forces inside the earth at a rate sufficient to match current human needs.
Meanwhile the people involved with the transition groups have been following a different drummer. Instead of frantically trying to find any way to avoid changing our profligate lifestyle, they have decided to rebuild community, a rare entity in a sprawl society.
The transitionists have taken a hard look at the projections and concluded that the nation”™s, if not the world”™s food supply, is at risk. The upheaval caused by a shortage, or the unaffordability of petroleum products and their impact on the food supply, and the drought conditions already afflicting California”™s farmers, have prompted the transitionists in Santa Cruz and in countless other communities to take matters into their own hands.
In the transition movement scenario job creation will be much closer to home, providing what families and communities need to survive, while reducing the carbon footprint and greatly minimizing the global role of the U.S. economy. The remarkable growth of farmers”™ markets and backyard gardens suggests that the public is beginning to understand what the government refuses to acknowledge.
Surviving the Future explores a wide range of subjects to assist businesses in adapting to a new energy age. Maureen Morgan, a transit advocate, is on the board of Federated Conservationists of Westchester. Reach her at maureenmorgan10@verizon.net.
