By the time this column is published Washington will have come to its senses, or there might be a different scenario. One thing is clear, however. After reading a number of reports, opinions, projections, etc. no one seems willing to admit the U.S. economy is shrinking.
Forecasters in Washington and on Wall Street keep saying the recovery”™s problems are temporary ”“ and then they redefine temporary. However, at a recent local gathering of individuals from a wide variety of interests and institutions there was absolute agreement the economy is indeed shrinking. Meanwhile, the number of economic development entities in the region continues to multiply.
No age is endless, as history amply demonstrates, but the Oil Age, when looked at with the perspective of the eons that preceded it, is a mere flash in the pan. After 125,000 generations, give or take, of low population growth, the global family began to expand, coinciding with the advent of the Oil Age ”“ a growth pattern now significantly out of sync with available resources. In the mid-60s the so-called “green revolution” was launched worldwide, wherein traditional agriculture was abandoned in favor of crop amendments that boosted the output. These fertilizers are based on fossil fuels. Global population has doubled since then, directly related to the increase in the food supply and the use of fossil fuels. Now, the food supply is in reverse (40 percent of U.S. corn goes into the gas tank) and global hunger is on the increase.
It has been a constant theme in these columns that the global oil supply is under real threat. The facts to confirm this are everywhere if one were interested in pursuing the topic. (Google “Peak Oil” and see what comes up). A clear indication of a shift in supply is that Saudi Arabia, while it increased its output by 700,000 barrels per day, has kept more of its oil at home to benefit its own citizens with air-conditioning and desalinization projects.
So how do we confront a shrinking economy at work and at home? Brutal assessments will be the order of the day. Even though the top 10 percent of the population will manage to keep luxury businesses going for a time, the economy must shift away from businesses that feed the public”™s desires to those that address what people need to survive. Small enterprises will fare better. All businesses should start wondering whether their employees could get to work if they couldn”™t afford to fill the gas tank. Is your business near a transit network? These are tough questions.
On the home front the shrunken economy has already arrived big-time. When a two-income family becomes a one-income family shrinkage has already occurred and since jobs are not being created at the pace they were in the past the present may become a permanent future.
Before the Oil Age people were more independent, able to do things for themselves. The modern grocery store did not exist and so food was grown in the backyard. The home was a producer, not a consumer.
If this all seems a bit too romantic and nostalgic, it is meant to encourage those who are confronted with the stark realities of how to survive in a greatly reduced economic environment.
In Westchester or Fairfield County it is difficult to even imagine that the economy is not in a permanent upward trajectory. But nothing grows forever on a finite planet with finite resources sought by more and more developing countries. Remember B.F. Schumacher”™s “Small is Beautiful.”
Surviving the Future explores a wide range of subjects to assist businesses in adapting to a new energy age. Reach Maureen Morgan at maureenmorgan10@verizon.net.
