Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty Images via CNN Newsource
By Kit Maher, Matt Egan, Alicia Wallace, CNN
(CNN) — President Donald Trump has fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, whom he accused, without evidence, of manipulating the monthly jobs reports for “political purposes.”
The BLS’ monthly labor report Friday showed that the US economy added only 73,000 jobs in July, far below expectations. It also sharply revised down the employment growth that had been previously reported in May and June – by a combined 258,000 jobs.
After the revisions, the jobs report showed the weakest pace of hiring for any three-month period since the pandemic recession in 2020.
“In my opinion, today’s Jobs Numbers were RIGGED in order to make the Republicans, and ME, look bad,” Trump said in a Truth Social post.
Although the May and June jobs numbers were worse than initially believed, revisions are normal in this process. The BLS’ initial monthly jobs estimates are often based on incomplete data, so they are revised twice after the initial report — followed by an annual revision every February. Additionally, BLS economists use a formula to smooth out jobs numbers for seasonal variations and that can exacerbate revisions when they fall outside economists’ expectations.
Trump on Friday incorrectly called the revisions a “mistake.”
“McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months,” Trump said on Truth Social. “Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under ‘TRUMP.’”
Trump said McEntarfer “faked” the jobs numbers before the election to try to boost former Vice President Kamala Harris’ chances in the 2024 presidential election.
“We’re doing so well. I believe the numbers were phony, just like they were before the election, and there were other times. So, you know what I did? I fired her, and you know what? I did the right thing,” Trump told reporters Friday on the South Lawn.
McEntarfer was confirmed by the Senate 86-8 in January 2024 for a term of four years. CNN has reached out to McEntarfer for comment. Until Trump replaces McEntarfer, Deputy Commissioner William Wiatrowski will serve as Acting Commissioner, the administration said.
Trump has previously criticized the BLS for its jobs data and revisions, and he told reporters Friday evening he’s “always had a problem with these numbers.” In 2016, during his first presidential campaign, Trump claimed that the unemployment rate was significantly higher than the BLS let on. In 2024, he accused former President Joe Biden’s administration of orchestrating a cover-up, after the BLS reported that it had overcounted jobs by 818,000 over the previous 12 months.
“I was thinking about it this morning, before the numbers that came out. I said, ‘Who is the person that does these numbers?’ And then they gave me stats about before the election,” Trump said Friday.
“We need people that we can trust,” he added.
But Trump and his administration have also praised the BLS data when it has been favorable to them. During Trump’s first term, former White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer said in March 2017 that the jobs data was no longer “phony” after the BLS issued a strong jobs report. And a month ago, current White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt posted on social media that the economy had beat expectations for jobs in four straight BLS labor reports.
‘Deeply worrisome’
The BLS is nonpartisan, and businesses and government officials rely on the accuracy of its data to make determinations about investment, hiring, spending and all sorts of key decisions.
“It’s outrageous for anyone in government to question the integrity of the BLS,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard professor and former Obama economic adviser. “Accurate statistics are essential to the economy.”
Furman doubted that replacing McEntarfer would compromise the BLS, but he said even the possibility or appearance of that notion “would be bad.”
“Countries that have tried to fake those statistics have often ended up with economic crises as a result,” Furman said.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, said the BLS’ data is at the “highest standard,” and “as accurate as it can be.”
“Anything that undermines that or even the perception of that high standard is deeply worrisome,” Zandi said. “I’ve never seen anything even close to this.”
At Moody’s, Zandi said he has hired a number of former BLS economists whom he called “fantastic.”
“They do great work,” Zandi said. “They are critical to a well-functioning economy.”
Democratic Virginia Senator Mark Warner accused Trump of working the referees.
“Firing the ump doesn’t change the score,” Warner said in a statement. “Americans deserve to know the truth about the state of the Trump economy.”
But Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said in a post on social media that she supports replacing McEntarfer.
“A recent string of major revisions have come to light and raised concerns about decisions being made by the Biden-appointed Labor Commissioner,” Chavez-DeRemer said on X. “I support the President’s decision to replace Biden’s Commissioner and ensure the American People can trust the important and influential data coming from BLS.”
Concerns about cuts
The BLS jobs survey is widely considered by economists to be robust. It samples more than 100,000 businesses and government agencies each month, representing roughly 629,000 individual worksites.
But, as part of larger cost-cutting taking place around practically every part of Trump’s government, the BLS is laying off staff — and, as a result, reducing the scope of its work.
For example, the BLS posted a notice in June stating it stopped collecting data for its Consumer Price Index in three cities (Lincoln, Nebraska; Buffalo, New York; and Provo, Utah) and increased “imputations” for certain items (a statistical technique that, when boiled down to very rough terms, essentially means more educated guesses).
That worried Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. In testimony before Congress in June, Powell said he believed the BLS data to be accurate, but he was upset about what could become a trend.
“I wouldn’t say that I’m concerned about the data today, although there has been a very mild degradation of the scope of the surveys,” Powell said at the time, in response to a question about survey data quality. “But I would say the direction of travel is something I’m concerned about.”
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