It is extraordinarily difficult to face any reality that conflicts with our world view. American exceptionalism has encouraged us to think we are invincible as a country, that we will only get bigger and better as the decades fly by with no serious limitations on the horizon.
As an illustration of how off the wall this kind of thinking is, the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) produces figures for the future availability of oil based on what this country will need as it grows, thus making the assumption that when the U.S. needs oil it will be there for the taking. And this is an agency that the government actually listens to.
Here are the facts: U.S. oil production peaked in the early 1970s, marking the end of this country”™s ability to completely supply its own energy needs. At the time it may not have seemed such a big deal but in hindsight it was the tipping point for this country”™s independence. U.S. foreign policy then began to adjust to the fact that our soaring need for oil would have to be satisfied by the resources of countries that might not be our best friends. To be sure, Canada and Mexico could be counted on but other countries would require more negotiations.
Anyone who is surprised by the fact that U.S. oil reserves peaked 40 years ago has not been paying attention. It was predicted around 1956 by petroleum geologist M. King Hubbard who discovered what has come to be known as Hubbard”™s Peak, in which the output of an oil reserve can be tracked on a bell-shaped curve. A new reserve pumps at an accelerating volume until it reaches a peak depending on the size of the reserve, this over a number of years. It may plateau for a time and then decline at more or less the same speed in which it increased. Having been successful at predicting the future of U.S. oil, Hubbard tried out his theory on other oil reserves around the world, and, as time went on, the theory appeared to be sound. There were some serious hang-ups, however.
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OPEC nations in the Middle East are loathe to reveal the true size and condition of their reserves. By making the reserves appear to be higher the nation is allowed to pump a higher quota under OPEC rules. Given this background, anyone who says so-called “peak oil” is not just over the horizon is basing that claim on extremely shaky information. The fact that there is not already an energy shortage can be attributed to the global recession, which has caused a slump in energy use. When the U.S. economy finally wakes up there will be a corresponding wake-up in the cost of energy.
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Even if one accepts that the end of the oil age is approaching it will be quickly pointed out that alternative fuels, tar sands, shale, algae, even nuclear, will provide for our needs. Unfortunately, this is not the answer. No combination of alternatives, even if implemented to their fullest potential, could replace the role oil plays in today”™s world, not even close. So what does that really mean?
When I began studying peak oil nearly five years ago it was quite a shock to confront the real implications of such a global event. However, even after numerous books, three conferences and endless discussions, the reality of peak oil just didn”™t quite make me confront the facts. Only when I read “The Long Descent” by John Michael Greer did the reality begin to sink in and what that reality would be for me, my family and my community, to say nothing of the entire country.
What does all this mean for business and the public in the metro region? Well, it means we have to “Powerdown,” the title of Richard Heinberg”™s impressive book. No agreement was reached in Copenhagen but the need to reduce our oil consumption did not go away. You don”™t have to believe in climate change to believe that we need to start getting efficient in our energy use whatever socio-economic group you belong to. Consider this: Europeans use half the energy we use to create a similar lifestyle. Our fundamental inefficiency as a nation will make this shift massively difficult. We have no time to lose. It”™s time to powerdown.
Surviving the Future explores a wide range of subjects to assist businesses in adapting to a new energy age. Maureen Morgan, a transit advocate, is on the board of Federated Conservationists of Westchester. Reach her at maureenmorgan10@verizon.net.
