As Fairfield County continued to shed jobs in April and a think tank predicted a weak recovery locally, startling employment and consumer confidence news in New York gave some hope that the end of the recession might be in sight.
Last month, consumer confidence climbed by the highest amount in six years, according to the New York City-based Conference Board based on data from TNS, and was at its highest level since last September on the eve of the Wall Street collapse.
“While confidence is still weak by historical standards, as far as consumers are concerned, the worst is now behind us,” Lynn Franco, director of consumer research at the Conference Board, said in a statement.
It remains to be seen how confidence will fare heading into the summer as far as businesses are concerned, however. In early May, researchers at the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis predicted the state will continue losing jobs through next summer, and said the recession”™s toll should top 100,000 jobs in total.
“The challenge in projecting the pattern of economic activity over the next eight quarters is what to expect of the massive federal stimulus and ”“ this is critical ”“ the rate of recovery in exports,” said Peter Gunther, senior research fellow at CCEA, which is affiliated with the University of Connecticut. “This is an economy that continues to stall despite attempts to jumpstart it.”
Connecticut shed 11,800 jobs between March and April, according to the state Department of Labor. The state”™s unemployment rate rose from 7.5 percent in March to 7.9 percent in April; mirroring a rise in the U.S. jobless rate from 8.5 percent to 8.9 percent.
Coastal Fairfield County lost 1,800 jobs from March, according to DOL estimates, a 0.4 percent decline that was the lowest drop statewide. The Danbury area lost another 400 jobs for a 0.6 percent drop. Combined, the Fairfield County region has lost 17,700 jobs from a year ago.
Fairfield County has the lowest unemployment in Connecticut, with DOL estimating a 7.4 percent unemployment rate in the coastal towns and a 6.9 percent rate in the Danbury area.
“Layoffs and business closings that occurred at the end of the first quarter this year were likely the cause for the spike in job losses we experienced in April,” said John Tirinzonie, an economist in the state Department of Labor. “Despite the sharp drop in employment last month, it appears we are beginning to see a bottoming out of this recession at the national level. Unfortunately, the length and severity of the recession will require a longer healing time before we see any economic recovery later this year.”
Still, there was better news from New York, on which many Fairfield County residents and businesses depend for their income ”“ the unemployment rate declined a basis point to 8 percent in New York City and 7.7 percent statewide. Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties had an estimated unemployment rate of 6.5 percent, down from 7 percent in March.
Despite the improvement, a New York state Department of Labor economist termed it premature to say the end of the recession is in sight.
Whereas health and education services was the lone sector to record an increase in jobs in New York between March and April, in Connecticut education services was the hardest hit along with arts and entertainment, with both sectors dropping 2.4 percent of their job base in April. Construction remains the worst-off sector on a year-over-year basis, with its total job count down 22 percent from April 2008.
