For the first time since the onset of the recession, the unemployment rate in lower Fairfield County reached 8 percent, though the overall state economy continued to show signs of stability as economists point toward a fuller recovery in the second half next year.
The Connecticut Department of Labor estimates that the Fairfield County region lost 200 jobs between September and October, based on employer surveys and information from the U.S. Department of Labor. If it is an accurate estimate, that would mark a stabilization of the month-to-month job market, when the area job count was judged to have dipped by 3,000 jobs.
Statewide, the state added 1,000 jobs between September and October, though the year-over-year total is still down 71,000 jobs.
In October, Bridgeport had the worst rate in Fairfield County at 12.1 percent; Hartford had the worst unemployment rate in the state at 14.4 percent.
While the state unemployment rate was 8.8 percent, up from 8.4 percent in September, that does not count people who are deriving marginal, part-time income from various sources sufficient to keep them from filing for unemployment benefits. Factor in that population, say Labor Department economists, and the true unemployment rate is likely half as much higher as the reported rate.
Still, those are people with valuable enough skill sets to be able to draw income even if not on a full-time basis, and who likely will be snapped up as expansion begins once more. And there is good news to be found in the report for some subsectors; among the biggest gainers were the leisure and hospitality industries and business services, a category that includes temporary help agencies.
And while Connecticut was reeling this fall from the announcement by United Technologies Corp. that it would shut down Pratt & Whitney plants in Cheshire and East Hartford at a cost of more than 1,000 jobs, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. announced it would relocate its headquarters from White Plains, N.Y. to Stamford in two year”™s time, nearly offsetting the UTC losses by adding 800 jobs, and possibly more as the economy recovers ”“ at the peak of the last business cycle, Starwood Hotels reported having 1,000 employees in White Plains.
“Despite the increase in the state”™s unemployment rate, there are some positive signs in Connecticut”™s economic indicators,” Salvatore DiPillo, the statistics supervisor with the state Labor Department, said in a statement. “While a gain of 1,000 jobs is welcome news, even more significant is the fact that initial claims for October ”¦ decreased by nearly 1,000 from the previous month and are now at their lowest level since last December.”
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Statewide, construction employment was up a third straight month, though that will almost certainly again revert to month-over-month losses as the construction season goes into hibernation this month until the spring thaw.
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With the state facing continued deficits that have already threatened its bond rating outlook, however, pessimism remains pervasive.
“Between recent forecasts on the economy and the state”™s fiscal condition, some lawmakers are waking up to the fact that things that were not addressed during the last session can”™t be put off any longer,” said Joe Brennan, vice president of public policy with the Connecticut Business and Industry Association, in a blog on CBIA”™s website. “Creating a climate that encourages employers and entrepreneurs to invest in Connecticut rather than elsewhere is also a challenge, but one that policymakers must stand up and tackle.”
And at least one economist is predicting a likelihood of a “double dip” recession: Peter Gunther, who writes for the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis affiliated with the University of Connecticut.
“If the strong national recovery ”“ 3.5 (percent) ”“ just recorded continues, Connecticut will now see modest job growth,” Gunther wrote this month in an economic outlook. “But the state recovers barely half of its losses ”“ and then again sees employment begin to contract from the middle of 2011 ”“ a double dip recession.”
Since Labor Day, multiple economists have minimized the odds of a double dip recession.
