The growing demand for power during high-use periods is creating the need for a sea change in the state”™s electrical grid, according to a new report.
The New York Independent System Operator released its annual “Power Trends” report June 17, outlining the need to diversify energy generation and update distribution technology.
Electricity use in the state reached a record high during a July 2013 heat wave, then hit a new winter high six months later during frigid weather caused by the polar vortex. Peak demand is expected to grow at an annual rate of 0.83 percent through 2024, the report said. By contrast, overall energy use in the state is expected to grow by only 0.16 percent during the same time period.
Stephen G. Whitley, president and CEO of the group, said, “When peak demand outpaces day-to-day electricity use, it accentuates the need to address peak conditions by retaining and developing power resources to their fullest capacity.”
Energy generation and distribution infrastructure have been concerns in the lower part of the state in recent years, as more generators have gone dark than new generators have sprung up across New York. Although the lower part of the state including the Hudson Valley accounts for 65 percent of New York”™s electricity consumption, only half of the power for the state is produced in the region.
The report said that more than 80 percent of the state”™s transmission lines date back prior to 1980 and that almost half of those lines will have to be replaced in the next 30 years at a cost of $25 billion. Downstate generators rely predominately on natural gas and oil to produce electricity, and the report suggests improving transmitters so that power produced by renewable technologies could be siphoned from upstate to downstate, higher-need areas.
Renewable sources such as wind generation continue to grow in the upstate region, a significant development considering new federal emissions regulations that will likely cause cost increases for power generated through fuel and natural gas. Fuel and gas-generated electricity is also becoming more expensive due to the increased peak demands for power, the report said.
More than half of all New York generators are fueled mainly by natural gas and “dramatic” increases in the cost of the gas meant spikes in wholesale electric prices. The average price for natural gas in New York rose 58 percent from 2012 to 2013, according to the report.
When energy usage increased last winter, the price of gas was higher than oil, so oil-fired generators were considered a better option to address the peak demand. Creating diversity in energy generation and shifting away from the reliance on natural gas would help prevent pricing volatility and improve reliability by creating more options for providers.
The state”™s six nuclear power plants generate a third of all New York electricity, and the report mentioned Buchanan”™s Indian Point Energy Center specifically. The operator has previously expressed concern about the shift away from nuclear power nationwide amid safety concerns and cheaper alternatives. There remains a question if the region could adequately make up for the lost power generation if Indian Point were to close. Transmission projects around the lower part of the state would better prepare the region for the loss of Indian Point, the report said.
Richard Thomas, director for the New York Affordable Reliable Electricity Alliance, a pro-Indian Point Group, issued a statement in response to the report. In it, Thomas said closing Indian Point would increase costs as well as emissions because of the increased reliance on gas and fuel power generation.
“These outcomes needlessly whack ratepayers with additional cost burdens and place those with respiratory ailments in harm”™s way,” he said.
