When the Trumbull Economic & Community Development Commission held its last in-person business appreciation breakfast on Oct. 25, 2019, First Selectman Vicki Tesoro declared, “Trumbull is the place to be.”
Nearly 24 months later, with the ravages of Covid-19 possibly, finally on the wane, Tesoro announced: “I say to you, today ”¦ more than ever, Trumbull still is the place to be.”
That remark drew appreciative applause from those attending the latest iteration of the breakfast, held Oct. 15 at the Trumbull Marriott.
Saying that her vision for the town continues to be “a simple one,” centered in part on maintaining a safe and affordable community featuring excellent schools, the onetime member of Trumbull”™s board of finance also promised a continuation of “quality, comprehensive services delivered in a fiscally conservative manner.”
Tesoro”™s formula appears to be working, if some of the numbers she cited are anything to go by. Trumbull”™s general fund is “as high as it”™s ever been” ”“ nearly $26 million as of June 30, the end of its fiscal year ”“ and has a “healthy surplus,” both of which helped it maintain its “AA+” bond rating.
Trumbull has held the line on taxes, Tesoro said, with an average annual property tax increase of 1.5% over the past four years and no tax increase in 2020.
The town has also sought and received millions of dollars to improve its commercial areas, Tesoro said, as well as $200,000 for its local meals programs ”“ twice what had been sought from the state.
The first selectman also ticked off the number of companies that have established a presence in Trumbull over the past two years, including Amazon ”“ an $11 million-plus investment in a 114,000-square-foot warehouse at 7120 Main St. that has created 140 jobs so far ”“ Power Home Remodeling, which relocated from Wilton to a 26,000-square-foot space in Trumbull Corporate Park; and Connecticut Make-a-Wish, whose new Connecticut headquarter in the corporate park has been described as “where Disneyland meets Dave & Buster”™s,” she said.
Seven businesses have opened in Trumbull”™s Long Hill Green area, Tesoro reported, while a new shared workspace business is coming to the Hawley Lane Mall. She also noted the groundbreaking later that day on The Residences at Main project at 5085 Main St., which will consist of five buildings containing a total of 196 two-bedroom and 64 one-bedroom units, and is located within walking distance of the Westfield Trumbull mall.
A “world-class planning study” will soon be launched to determine possible future developments at the Westfield mall. “We”™re going to do everything we can to make sure that we transform that mall into (a) live-work-play development.”
Westfield Trumbull represents almost 5% of the town”™s grand list, making it Trumbull”™s largest taxpayer.
Furthermore, a new Starbucks and drive-thru Dunkin prove that “Trumbull has really come into the 21st century,” Tesoro joked.
Keynote speaker Stephen Andrews, a senior vice president at Webster Bank, laid out what he sees as the economic future ”“ an admittedly difficult task, he said, given the health crisis and socioeconomic turmoil of the past couple of years.
Noting that the S&P 500 stood at just shy of its record highs ”“ it stood at 4,363.8 at the close of Oct. 14, compared with its all-time high of 4,536.95, set on Sept. 2 ”“ Andrews said, “It hasn”™t been an easy trip.” Even so, roughly 19 million of the 22 million jobs lost during the pandemic have now been recovered; Andrews said he expects the nation to end 2021 with roughly 3.5 million fewer employed workers than before the pandemic.
“Based on the growth we”™ve had of late we expect to get back to even, if you will, sometime in the first quarter of next year,” he said.
Further driving optimism, Andrews said, was the recent Federal Reserve report that found U.S. household wealth achieving a new high of $141.7 trillion at the end of June, thanks both to stock market gains and the real estate boom. Household debt — which grew at an annualized rate of 7.9% in the second quarter, compared to 6.7% in the first quarter — has remained relatively low thanks to wage gains over the past decade and the federal government”™s stimulus checks and expanded unemployment benefits at the national and state levels.
Retail sales are up about 18% over where they were pre-pandemic, Andrews said, with even the much-bruised restaurant and bar sector up about 8% over pre-Covid levels.
At the same time, consumer confidence has taken a hit, falling for the third consecutive month in September to 109.3 ”“ its lowest level since February ”“ from its June peak of 128.9. The U.S. consumer drives about 70% of the nation”™s GDP, Andrews noted.
A double whammy of rising inflation and the ongoing supply-chain crisis ”“ as well as the nagging problem of finding qualified workers for open positions — could have lasting effects, Andrews warned: “You get the sense that angst is building a little bit.”
Overall the economy “is running red hot,” he said, noting that the situation would be even better were it not for the supply-chain issue. Two months ago it was taking about four days to offload cargo ships in the Port of Los Angeles; now it is closer to four weeks, Andrews said.
With residential real estate ”“ a key factor in overcoming recessions of the past ”“ Andrews said the U.S. economy needs the construction of about 1.5 million new homes each year “just to keep up with demographic growth and replacing obsolete homes.” Some are now estimating the 2021 figure to end up in the 1.6 to 1.7 million range, Andrews said, adding that roughly half of the homes sold over the past 12 months had yet to be built.
Existing home sales, which make up about 70% of the market, “has come back in a big way, but there”™s no supply,” he said. As a result, while 50% of the homes sold in 2020 were purchased within 30 days of listing, today that figure is 89%.
Risks facing the economy as it moves into 2022 include shutdowns, political turmoil and another Covid resurgence, Andrews said.
But, he added, “From a fundamental standpoint, and from a technical standpoint, the foundation of the economy looks pretty good right now.”
