March showed a flat job market in Fairfield County, with a negligible 2 percent increase in job posting activity. These unimpressive numbers round out a fairly unremarkable first quarter for 2014 where the overall increase in job growth was around 4 percent.
Some key items of note regarding March:
Ӣ Stamford led all towns in the county with the most jobs posted, followed by Norwalk and Westport.
Ӣ The industries most actively hiring this past month were financial services, nonprofit and legal services.
Ӣ Top job categories were administrative, sales and customer support.
The overall tepid condition of the market for the first three months of the year suggests that we still are stuck in a period of minimal growth, treading water as we wait for some spark to yield any momentum of sorts. More concerning is that the likely catalysts for any such spark are unlikely to present themselves anytime soon. Specifically with election season upon us and Gov. Dannel Malloy recently announcing his plans to run for a second term, the likelihood of any major job market stimulus programs hitting the market are slim at best. In fact, one could argue that recent moves by those representing us in Hartford have been more anti-business than pro-growth, with new bills being introduced that, if passed, would likely serve to thwart hiring vs. stimulate it.
On the national scene the most pressing item and one that will likely drive the job market in the second quarter continues to be the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Several major aspects of the ACA that require further definition and comment by the federal government are almost certainly going to be announced by July 1. The fear continues to be that over-reaching policies and regulations related to the ACA could result in a reduction in new job growth, especially if businesses see more costs heaped on them for each employee they engage. Recent announcements delaying the penalties some businesses would have faced Jan. 1, 2015, will help, but more needs to be clarified before we can truly assess the impact the ACA will likely have on hiring in 2014.
With one quarter in the books I would say the outlook for 2014 is, at best, uncertain. This despite an encouraging national jobs report for March. More accurately it looks like more gradual to imperceptible progress is the likely outcome, with shifting sands beneath a very unstable infrastructure leaving us guessing, at least for a while to come. Stay tuned.
David Lewis is president/CEO of FairfieldCountyJobs.com, with more than 100,000 visitors a month to view jobs from over 4,000 area employers. His monthly reports address the condition of the job market as measured by data from his websites as well as data from state, federal and industry sources in the public domain.
