Certainty in an uncertain world

Changing demographics are one of the most “certain” forces at work in shaping our “uncertain” world. With the exception of the United States, in all developed and developing countries, including China and India, the baby boom is over and they are experiencing a “baby bust.” Even the Black Plague of the 14th century didn”™t depopulate Europe as quickly as today”™s declining births.

We in the U.S. have a “certain” competitive advantage because our birth rate is above replacement and, in addition, according to the Pew Research Center 800,000 people legally immigrate each year. However, if we don”™t equip all citizens with 21st century skills, our lifestyle will continue to fall until we reach the levels of the Third World and developing countries we are competing with globally.

Many U.S. jobs are lower paying and found in the restaurant, hospital, hospitality, farming, construction and low-end manufacturing sectors. These will be filled by immigrants who see them as “starter” positions to quickly move up. Immigrants help keep cost low and help these sectors remain globally competitive. We are a nation of immigrants and the diversity that they bring continues to be part of our certainty.

At the other end of the job spectrum, over the past 15 years, one fourth of all venture-backed companies were founded by immigrants, according to Fortune magazine. In addition, the 2007 article pointed out that of the Fortune 100 companies, 14 had immigrant CEOs. Eight were natives of India, including Citicorp, Adobe Systems and PepsiCo. Meanwhile, Coca-Cola was run by a native of Turkey and Kellogg”™s CEO was from Australia.

The challenges

Today half of all business students at Stanford, Wharton, the University of Chicago and Berkeley are foreigners. There is little doubt that the world”™s best and brightest will be the next wave of entrepreneurs and business leaders. The question is, will we allow them to stay in our country or demand that they leave and compete with us from theirs?

Another challenge is our reluctance to leave the comfort of what we are doing now and move up the food chain. Many organizations see their products and services becoming commodities as more and more “me too” providers, both foreign and domestic drive prices and margins down. In the long run this is a zero sum game where only the cheapest provider will survive. This behavior reduces the standard of living for all those participating.

The answer to the threat of commoditization lies in the second characteristic that has made America great ”“ innovation. By creating new and better products and services, healthy margins can be maintained that are a prerequisite for a growing lifestyle. However, to produce and deliver new and better products and services our workforce needs new skills and our education system must confront this issue.

The uncertainness we face is within our control. Will we change our existing business models and innovate new and better, high-margin products and services? Will our educational system provide our workforce with the 21st century skills needed for our organizations to succeed? Will we retain the brightest and the best that come to us to be educated? How we answer these and other questions discussed can create a great deal of certainty in an otherwise very uncertain world.

Questions for discussion:

• What are the new and higher-margin products and services that will we be selling in the future and what growing markets will we sell them in?
• How will we attract, educate and maintain workers with the 21st century skills to produce and deliver the new products and services we will offer?

Joe Murtagh is The DreamSpeaker, an international keynote speaker, meeting facilitator and business trainer. For questions or comments, contact Joe@TheDreamSpeaker.com, TheDreamSpeaker.com or call (800) 239-0058.