U.S. retail sales for the upcoming holiday season are expected to increase 3.7% year-over-year, according to the latest SpendingPulse forecast from Purchase-headquartered Mastercard (NYSE:MA).
The new forecast defines the shopping aspect of the holiday season as running from Nov. 1 through Dec. 24 and excludes automotive purchases. Mastercard measures in-store and online retail sales across all forms of payment for its forecast, which is not adjusted for inflation.
This holiday season, Mastercard is predicting shoppers will take an omnichannel approach to their purchasing, with e-commerce expected to increase 6.7% from one year ago while in-store sales will increase 2.9%. Electronics, gadgets and gaming will be among the top items, with consumers who purchased then-new models during the pandemic looking to upgrade to the latest edition.
The restaurant sector is expected to growth at 5.4% year-over-year, outpacing the grocery sector’s predicted 3.9% growth. Mastercard believed more consumers will be planning shared meals, activities, and festivities outside of the home for this post-pandemic holiday season.
“While the consumer of holidays past may have been a consumer trying to find footing in a rapidly shifting economy, the consumer of holidays present has taken their power back,” said Michelle Meyer, U.S. chief economist at Mastercard Economics Institute. “We expect these individuals to impressively navigate the holiday season, making choices and trade-offs that best suit their lifestyles.”
