With Black Friday and Cyber Monday upon us (Nov. 28 and Dec. 1 respectively), will retail’s holiday season be naughty or nice? Something sparkling for the stocking or lumps of coal? The picture is indeed cloudy with two major players offering conflicting projections for the season.
The National Retail Federation, which advocates for the industry, has forecast retail sales to grow decently between 3.7% and 4.2% over 2024. That would mean a record spending of between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion, compared with last year when holiday sales rose 4.3% over 2023 to reach $976.1 billion.
“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement. “We remain bullish about the holiday shopping season and expect that consumers will continue to seek savings in nonessential categories to be able to spend on gifts for loved ones.”
NRF Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research Mark Mathews added: “The economy has continued to show surprising resilience in a year marked by trade uncertainty and persistent inflation. As tariffs have induced an uptick in consumer prices, retailers have tried to hold the line on prices given the uncertainty about trade policies.”
Retailers are also hiring additional support to meet consumer demand this holiday season though not as much as in the past. NRF expected retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, in line with a slower-paced labor market. By comparison, there were 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.
Mathews added that while seasonal hiring normally supports the job market this time of year, some hiring may have been pulled forward for retailers’ holiday buying events in October. Because of the ongoing tariff situation, NRF found, retailers will be monitoring spending patterns and waiting to make staff additions should demand strengthen throughout the holiday season.
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A report from professional services giant Deloitte, however, offered a contrasting forecast for the holiday shopping season that traditionally begins Nov. 1, before the Halloween candy has even had a chance to go stale, and runs through Dec. 31.
The 40th anniversary Deloitte Holiday Retail Survey found that shoppers plan to spend 10% less, especially on extras, with 77% expecting higher prices on holiday goods and more than half (57%) anticipating the economy to weaken in the next six months – the Scrooge-iest prediction, Deloitte said, since it began tracking economic sentiment in 1997.
Still, the survey said that many shoppers across all income groups remain “attuned to value,” with promotions and deals determining where and when they spend. But it’s not just about price. As Deloitte discovered in its recent report, “The value-seeking consumer,” surveyed shoppers are looking for “quality, trust and meaningful experiences “ from their favorite brands.
Younger generations, particularly Gen Z, are poised to reshape the holiday shopping landscape. Not only are they more likely to seek deals (95%), but they’re also turning to influencers and social media (74%) and AI (43%) for inspiration and product discovery and are using digital tools to find the best prices. This season, they’re planning to spend 34% less than last year, which means it will likely be important for retailers to offer them shopping experiences that are genuine, engaging and integrated into the platforms where they already spend time.
For the economy overall, this is about a lot more than whether you’re shopping on Amazon or at Zara. Retail, the NRF noted, is the nation’s largest private-sector employer, contributing $5.3 trillion to annual GDP and supporting more than one in four U.S. jobs – 55 million working Americans. With inflation and tariffs hovering like the Ghosts of Christmas Past and Future, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Christmas present.
With divergent findings, one thing is clear: Retailers will have to hit shoppers where they live. Those that can deliver quality items and experiences conveniently and affordably, retail observers said, won’t be crying “Bah, humbug.”
