The past year has not been good for Westchester and two neighboring counties where jobs are concerned, though the past few months have offered some signs that recovery may finally be on the way.
Westchester”™s unemployment rate remains among the lowest in the New York metro area at 6.8 percent as of October, according to the state Department of Labor ”“ down 0.1 percent from the previous month and from the 7.1 percent for October 2009. The county”™s unemployment has been recorded as high as 7.7 percent in January and February ”“ which is about double the 3-4 percent rage of past years when the economy was healthy.
Westchester”™s unemployment rate is identical to Nassau (6.8 percent), slightly lower than Suffolk (7 percent), but lower than New York state (8 percent), let alone the U.S. (9 percent) or New York City (9.2 percent), according to state labor department figures.
Rockland unemployment inched up to 6.9 percent in October, from 6.8 percent a month earlier and 7 percent a year earlier. Putnam, on the other hand, dipped from 6.5 percent in September to 6.4 percent in October, down from 6.8 percent in October 2009.
The biggest losers
The figures also showed that in the 12 months ended in September, Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties lost a combined 8,200 nonfarm jobs, a 1.5 percent drop ”“ of which 5,100 were private-sector jobs. Westchester accounts for 70 percent of the jobs in a three-county region that has continued to shed jobs year-to-year. (The state labor department stopped collecting sector-by-sector numbers from individual counties about five years ago).
The biggest loser among employment sectors in the three-county area was construction, which lost 3,300 jobs in the 12 months ending in October, as home builders and commercial developers wait for the real estate and financial markets to improve.
Other sectors losing large numbers of jobs were trade-transportation-utilities (down 2,700 jobs), which included a 2,300-job slide in retail employment; educational services (down 1,600 jobs); manufacturing (down 600 jobs); and telecommunications (down 400 jobs), which accounted for the entire slide in “information” jobs, down 2.8 percent.
Measured month-to-month, the three-county region saw seasonal drops in leisure and hospitality jobs such as those at hotels and restaurants (down 800 jobs), and in construction (down 400 jobs).
”˜Better things to come”™
Johny Nelson, labor market analyst for the state Department of Labor”™s Hudson Valley region, which consists of Westchester and six neighboring counties, noted that the region has recorded consecutive months of job gains since last winter, that October”™s gain contrasts with the 4.5 percent loss in jobs the same month a year ago and that a growing number of sectors are finishing recent months by adding rather than subtracting jobs.
“The worst is behind us, certainly,” Nelson said. “By all means, we are not out of the woods yet. We”™re nowhere near that. But certainly, it seems like the trend is for better things to come.”
Over the past year, Nelson said, leisure and hospitality jobs gained the most of any sector, up 1,500 jobs or 3.4 percent. Other year-to-year gainers:
- Health care and social assistance jumped by 1,700 jobs, up 1.9 percent, to 91,900 jobs.
- Ambulatory health care services rose by 500 jobs, up 1.6 percent, to 32,700 jobs.
- Employment services increased by 400 jobs, up 8.2 percent, to 5,300 jobs.
Nelson also cited state labor figures showing month-to-month gains in some sectors. Between September and October:
- Educational services ballooned by 1,800 jobs, up 7.8 percent, to 25,000 jobs.
- Professional and business services also gained 700 jobs, up 1 percent, to 69,000.
- Health care and social assistance rose by 700 jobs, up 0.8 percent.
- Retail added 600 jobs, up 1 percent, reflecting seasonal hiring by stores in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
- “Other” services, which include religious organizations, auto repair shops, laundry services and civic and professional groups, increased by 500 jobs or 2.1 percent, to 24,600 jobs.
Retail strategies paying off
Nelson said this year”™s seasonal retail gain may have been accelerated by the strategy of several retail chains with stores in and around Westchester ”“ he cited Toys R Us and Kohl”™s ”“ to begin pre-Christmas sales even before the “Black Friday” traditional start of the holiday shopping season.
“People anticipate a big sale and the rush is on, so you do tend to see some of the big retailers, they”™ll start gearing up for that holiday and also moving on to Christmas and also well after Christmas ”“ there are always these after-Christmas sales as well. You do tend to see a little bit of uptick in hiring activity,” Nelson said. “It”™s still a good sign that maybe as consumer confidence picks up a little bit, maybe people are going out there and are spending a little bit of money.”
The education jump reflects the seasonal back-to-school hiring spike, while rising health care employment this past month reflects Westchester”™s graying demographics, Nelson said.
He added that the professional/business and other service increases is more the sort of job growth that portends the area”™s economy may finally be recovering after two years of convulsive job losses.
“We could see steady but slow improvement,” Nelson said. “I”™m one who”™s very optimistic. I like to look at the glass as half-full and I think it helps certainly that the pace of job deceleration has slowed down considerably. When you look at the private-sector job numbers, we are seeing a drastic turnaround certainly.”
