After six months of gains, Connecticut”™s job growth stalled in July largely due to the layoff of some 1,500 temporary workers canvassing on behalf of the U.S. Census Bureau, with additional Census jobs slated to be finished in August.
Economists are still trying to add up what is happening in the overall economy.
Excluding government jobs, private employers again added jobs, and now employ 12,500 more people than they did last December. Nevertheless, after three straight months of sequential declines the state”™s unemployment rate nevertheless edged up to 8.9 percent in July, from 8.8 percent in June, while U.S. unemployment held steady at 9.5 percent.
Mixed news flummoxed many economists as August drew to a close. For instance, while New York notched its biggest gain in private sector jobs since April 2005, Empire State employers also executed more than 200 mass layoffs in July affecting 50 workers or more, quadruple the number of mass layoffs in June.
Mass layoffs in Connecticut held steady, with 13 such actions affecting close to 1,000 workers.
“July was the first time since June 2008 that Connecticut saw a year-to-year growth in jobs, having added 1,500 jobs since July 2009,” said Salvatore DiPillo, statistics supervisor in the Connecticut Department of Labor, in a prepared statement.
In lower Fairfield County and the Danbury area, the Connecticut Department of Labor estimated that unemployment jumped a full half-percentage point between June and July, while cautioning that its statistical models can produce exaggerated swings in data at the local level.
In Westchester County, N.Y., unemployment rose 0.3 percent to 7 percent in July, while New York unemployment statewide held steady at 8.2 percent.
New York City”™s rate ticked down a point to 9.4 percent. The city”™s job market has bounced back much faster than in past recoveries, according to James Brown, an analyst in the New York State Department of Labor ”“ after sharp job losses in January 2002, New York City needed more than two years to return to growth.
The question becomes whether Fairfield County will enjoy any spillover effect. In Connecticut and elsewhere, the July jump in private-sector jobs came as a surprise to some, after the U.S. Department of Labor tracked in mid-August the largest number of jobless claims in a single week since last November.
“What that tells me is that there is still a lot of softness in the economy,” said Peter Gioia, vice president and economist for the Connecticut Business & Industry Association. “The economy is still growing, but obviously these numbers are a setback. Nationally a lot of ”¦ the uncertainty that is out there obviously has to have an effect in Connecticut.”
And the idled construction industry finally registered an increase ”“ if a small one at 600 jobs, a welcome one nevertheless. Still, the sector remains off 26 percent from its levels in June 2007, or more than 18,000 jobs.
DOL cautioned that jobs estimates are best understood in the context of their movement over several months; while many industry sectors still show employment losses on a year-over-year basis, DOL indicated there are signs that these are easing.
“Dramatic revisions in federal economic data show that the Great Recession was significantly worse than previous thought; thus Connecticut”™s economy probably has been weaker than previously recognized,” said Peter Gunther, an economist affiliated with the Connecticut Center for Economic Analysis, in a quarterly outlook on the state”™s economic prospects. “The most recent data on unemployment filings, housing, retail sales, and consumer confidence all raise warning flags.”
