Some see the growing collection of For Lease signs adorning Fairfield County strip malls as ominous signposts on the state of the economy.
Others see opportunity and are knocking.
Even as retailers and food establishments weather the recession, national chains continue scouting for locations in wealthy Fairfield County ”“ notably Richmond Hills, Mo.-based Panera Bread, which is considering opening as many as 10 additional Fairfield County locations over the next several years ”“ if it can secure leases at favorable locales.
“Obviously the banks swept through Fairfield County and took all the best corners,” said Jason Wuchiski, a broker with FirstService Williams Commercial Real Estate, who is assisting Panera as it scouts locations. “They are looking for the best sites.”
Panera is not the only company thinking in those terms. TJX Companies Inc., the Framingham, Mass.-based owner of HomeGoods, Marshalls and TJ Maxx, is also looking to take advantage of the downturn to upgrade its real estate locations, already operating nearly 20 stores in Fairfield County.
In a conference call with investors, TJX CEO Carol Meyrowitz said the company expects some 1,200 retail locations to become available nationally during the recession due to store closings.
“The fact that the retail landscape is ”¦ shrinking creates an opportunity for TJX,” Meyrowitz said. “We are now beginning to see some of these opportunities come to fruition. The deals we are seeing are truly advantageous.”
Retail sales nationally in March dropped 1.1 percent from February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the U.S. Department of Commerce. The National Retail Federation and HSI Global Insight reported that the nation”™s ports offloaded fewer than 1 million containers in February, the lowest monthly total in seven years.
In addition to the economy, a chilly start to spring and a later Easter holiday this year contributed to the lackluster results, according to NRF.
Still, Fairfield County and by extension Connecticut has held up comparatively well in the recession compared with other parts of the country. Surprisingly, Connecticut collections of sales and use tax were up 25 percent in March compared with a year earlier, according to preliminary estimates by the state Department of Revenue Services; but for the fiscal year ending this June tax receipts were still off 5 percent.
Regional retailers reported to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York that sales, while weak, were close to plan in February and March. Siena College reported that New York consumer confidence edged up slightly in March, though was still near the record low set last October.
One TJX landlord, Greenwich-based Urstadt Biddle Properties Inc., indicated its leased space dropped in the fiscal quarter ending Jan. 31, primarily due to the bankruptcy of Linens ”™n Things and Borders Books closing a location. Still, the company achieved an average base rent increase of 4 percent on leases covering 190,000 square feet of space during the quarter and had a $6.9 million profit on $21.4 million in revenue, the latter figure up 10 percent from a year ago.
The major question becomes whether opportunistic chains will feel any sense of urgency to jump in, or whether they are content to bide their time in hopes lease rates will drop.
 “You look at the top retail brokers in the Northeast, and you don”™t hear a lot of gloom and doom from them because they are working on enough deals to stay positive,” Wuchiski said. “You have a (company like) Panera saying, ”˜Look, you find us a good site at the right place and we”™ll sign the lease.”™”
