Seven of Connecticut’s eight counties plus New York”™s Orange County were cited in a new study from ATTOM Data Solutions for being among the most at risk of economic impact from the Covid-19 pandemic.
The new study, which covered county-level housing markets during the third quarter, analyzed home affordability, equity and foreclosure reports in 487 counties around the country.
Risk factors were determined based on the percentage of homes currently facing possible foreclosure, the portion of homes with mortgage balances that exceed the estimated property value and the percentage of local wages required to pay for major home ownership expenses.
The study concluded that Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland and Delaware had 32 of the 50 counties most vulnerable to the economic trauma inflicted during the pandemic. Orange County was one of five suburbs in the New York metro area ”“ the other four were in New Jersey ”“ cited in the study, with Fairfield County also being pegged for difficulties.
“The U.S. housing market continues to show remarkable resilience during a time of widespread economic trouble and high unemployment stemming from the virus pandemic,” said Todd Teta, chief product officer with ATTOM Data Solutions. “But amid continued price gains, pockets around the country face greater risk of a fall, especially in and around the Northeast.
“There is much uncertainty ahead, especially if another virus wave hits,” Teta added. “We will continue to closely monitor home prices and sale patterns to see if, how and where the pandemic starts rattling local markets.”
While interesting, it should be noted that this analysis was originally provided back in April. Considering the surge in housing activity in the Mid-Hudson Valley since May/June, it seems that 1/3 of the analysis, aka Home Values, could now be considered stale-dated. Additionally, the migration of higher earning residents from NYC into Orange and Dutchess Counties, impacts the Affordability aspect of the analysis. This report should be updated before being reported as news.
Mr. Bronzi, this coverage is from ATTOM’s Q3 report, which was released on October 8 and covered activity from July through September. The April report you cited is a different study.