While Hudson Valley economic development authorities urge patience, state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli says New York employers still face “significant challenges and risks” in the wake of a national hiring slowdown and a worsening European debt crisis.
Through April, New York state employers had recovered 95 percent of the jobs lost during the recession. But that number was masked by major gains in New York City, which accounts for 44 percent of the state”™s workforce.
In the lower Hudson Valley, employers added 16,700 jobs between December 2009 and this past April ”“ the last month for which state jobs data are available. That”™s 52 percent of the jobs lost during the recession.
“New York”™s economy is slowly recovering, but challenges remain, including the European debt crisis and deficit-cutting decisions in Washington,” DiNapoli said in a statewide economic trends report released May 30. “The national economy also appears to be slowing, which could impact New York”™s economy. We are not out of the woods yet.”
Since adding more than 200,000 jobs each month from December 2011 through February 2012, the U.S. economy has sputtered, adding just 69,000 jobs in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported.
Initial employment gains reported for March and April were also revised downward, by 11,000 and 38,000, respectively.
Hudson Valley employers have trimmed employment gains as well, with the private sector adding just 6,600 jobs from April 2011 through April 2012.
For the year ended April 2011, employment in the Hudson Valley counties increased by 2 percent, compared to a 0.9 percent increase for the 12 months ended April 2012.
John Nelson, state Labor Department analyst for the Hudson Valley region, remained optimistic that employers would continue to add jobs, albeit at a slower rate than a year ago.
“Of course, coming out of the recovery you”™ll see some up and down periods,” Nelson said. “So far this year, what we”™re seeing is it”™s still a continued improvement, although the job market is growing at a slower pace.”
That could all change depending on how the situation in Europe evolves, economic experts said.
“I”™m concerned about Europe,” said Vincent J. Calluzzo, dean of the Hagan School of Business at Iona College in New Rochelle. “If Europe doesn”™t turn around … this almost becomes a repeat of last year.”
Whereas in the past the U.S. economy could fall back on a strong manufacturing base, those manufacturers now represent only about 30 percent of the economy, said Farrokh Hormozi, Pace University economist and chair of the university”™s public administration department.
“It is the old cliché that we have to promote manufacturing,” Hormozi said, advocating instead for government to invest in and promote greater educational opportunities for Americans.
“Overall, my attitude toward the American economy is not bad,” Hormozi said. “I think these are fluctuations that can be easily taken care of provided policy makers come to their senses and address the problem in a more reasonable fashion.”
For the time being, business development authorities say they”™ve seen increased hiring activity and a greater willingness among business owners to invest in capital improvements.
“Banks are definitely lending,” said Thomas Morley, director of the Rockland Small Business Development Center, which also serves Westchester and Putnam counties and is a division of the New York State SBDC. “Even in the darkest days, banks were still lending … but the banks are getting more aggressive in their marketing efforts and I think that”™s in advance of much stronger demand for loans.”
Morley said the Small Business Development Center, which is administered by the State University of New York in partnership with the U.S. Small Business Administration, is seeing more business owners who are looking to make capital investments, “which I think is indicative of that pent-up demand.”
“Now they”™re saying, ”˜I”™m feeling a little more comfortable, I”™m willing to take on new debt for that,”™” Morley said.
Richard Greenwald, president of The Concorde Group, a White Plains employment agency, estimated that his firm has seen 30 percent more hiring than to this time a year ago.
“It”™s busier, it”™s definitely busier, no question,” Greenwald said. “Whether it can sustain itself ”“ we are going into the summer months, so that”™s always a question mark. I think there”™s definitely activity, and there are definitely companies looking to hire.”
