Patrick Flaherty, director of research and information for the Connecticut Department of Labor, recently provided an update on the latest demographic data for the state to members of the Fairfield County Cultural Alliance.
While framed as information for representatives of the arts and cultural institutions in attendance to make informed marketing decisions, the data Flaherty presented also had important implications for businesses across the region.
Flaherty began by noting shifts in employment sectors.
“Over the past few years finance and insurance traditionally had a higher employment level in Fairfield County than manufacturing and they have now switched places,” he said. “Finance, unfortunately, is just continuing to shrink in terms of jobs statewide and in Fairfield County. Although these are very high paying jobs so it’s still a very important part of our economy, from a total employment perspective it’s just getting smaller, and I think most of that is driven by technology.”
According to Flaherty, while the overall number of jobs in the latest data show an increase in the number of jobs in the first half of 2023, the state still has fewer overall than in 2019 when the Covid pandemic accelerated declines in several sectors, most notably retail. He also stressed that these trends should not be sensationalized.
“There was a story in the Hartford Business Journal about the retail apocalypse which was completely exaggerated,” he continued. “They had some lost jobs, but it’s still about 240,000 jobs statewide, it’s still a very large sector and for a young person still in high school looking for a first job, retail is still an excellent place to get started.”
Fairfield County has also been seeing a marked increase in its Hispanic population, growing by more than 40,000 since 1995. Flaherty noted that both this group and Black citizens have had increasingly high labor force participation rates in recent years.
“Since the pandemic the white labor force participation rate has declined, but the Black and Hispanic labor force participation rates have gone up, and the gaps have gotten even wider,” he observed. “That’s just a reality, folks who are people of color work or are looking for work.”
Both Fairfield County and the state are more diverse, according to the Department of Labor’s data, a trend that is driven by migration from overseas.
“In 2005, 185,000 people lived in Fairfield County who were born outside of the U.S. , that’s now up to over 225,000,” Flaherty said, noting that in Manchester a large influx of Indian families has led a pair of baseball fields to be repurposed for cricket.
“Another myth that I’d like to dispel here is the idea that young people are fleeing Connecticut , that is just not true,” he added, pointing to a graph showing that while the state’s population is aging, it is at a rate that indicates many who moved to Connecticut in their 40s are still here in their 50s. Flaherty acknowledged people leave the state, where an aging population means the oldest tend to make what he called a “natural exit.”
“We actually have more people in their 50s here today than if everybody had just stayed,” Flaherty said. “So, we’re not seeing this big exodus. But one of the things that is true is that the people who move out of Connecticut often have higher incomes than the people moving in. But when you look at what’s happening you see people moving to Connecticut in their twenties and thirties without much income. And then when they retire, they move somewhere else with the pot of gold that they made while they’re here.”
Flaherty acknowledged that losing high taxpayers is dismaying to the budget office, but noted that this was a common cycle.
“This is a place people come, make their fortune, and then go to warmer weather at the end of their career,” he said. “That’s not a terrible story.”
During audience questions, matters of housing and transportation were quickly raised.
Flaherty shared data on where Fairfield County residents worked, which showed that in 2019 more people commuted into Fairfield County for work than residents who worked outside of it. In 2020, the latest year where the data was available, the numbers were closer to but information on the impact of the pandemic was not yet available. In both years the bulk of the population worked within the county, contrary to the popular view of the region as a New York City bedroom community.
Within the county, however, many worked outside of the communities they lived in. As a result, Flaherty encouraged the gathered members of the arts community to contemplate how audiences may have changed, as have their needs. For instance, even if somebody works in the area and is interested in the programming offered, they may have limited ability to enjoy it.
“Let’s say somebody comes to work on some kind of public transportation,” Flaherty said. “They will need to get home before the last bus or train leaves, so they can’t stay for dinner or that late show.”
Flaherty’s presentation also highlighted changes on the horizon in the form of Regional Councils of Governments (COGs). These new organizations will divide the state into nine regions instead of the eight counties Connecticut traditionally had and will be the new basis for future demographic research and census data.
The state hopes that COGs will be able to apply for Federal funding aimed at county level governments, which Connecticut has lacked since 1960, Flaherty explained. Fairfield County will be largely split between the Western and Bridgeport Metropolitan COGs, with Shelton grouped in the Naugatuck Valley COG.
