Judging from headlines and recent data released by national moving companies, one might conclude that there is a bit of an exodus occurring in Connecticut with “thousands” leaving the state.
But according to analysts on the ground, the facts behind the state”™s immigration patterns paint a less bleak picture.
“This trend has been consistent for 20 years,” said Joseph McGee, vice-president of public policy and programs with The Business Council of Fairfield County.
“We are a slow growth state,” he said. “When you look at the data more people are moving out of Connecticut than are moving in, but not by much.”
The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that in 2014, that state experienced a deficit of at least 14,000 people with more than 82,000 people moving to Connecticut from other states, but more than 96,000 residents moving out.
Growth has indeed been slow. In the decades between 1970 and 2014 the state gained half a million residents, bring the current population to an estimated total of 3.5 million in July 2014, according to census data.
The pace of growth has been far slower than the baby boomer eras of the 1950s and 60s, when the state gained an estimated 1 million residents.
But dissecting the numbers, McGee and other analysts look to other factors such as Connecticut”™s aging population as well as inbound international migrations as caveats to the losses.
“International migration is very important to us, there is no question, people moving in from abroad is very critical to us maintaining our population, it offsets the out-migration,” he said.
Peter Gioia, vice president and an economist with the Connecticut Business and Industry Association pegs some of the losses on the state”™s aging population.
“When people retire they don”™t want to shovel snow, so naturally from northeast states you get movement down south,” he said.
While census data shows that the largest segments of outbound migration over the last few years are among 18-34 year olds, additional data suggest the well-known retirement state of Florida, one of seven states and the only on the East Coast with no personal income tax, is among top locations for Connecticut residents.
“One thing that hasn”™t been tracked and would be interesting to see is that more and more business people ”” family business people, small business owners ”” as they are approaching retirement age they are getting advice to go down south to avoid taxes,” he said. “We know that advisors and accountants are telling people to do this simply because Connecticut taxes for people who have means are way the heck too high.”
In 2014 New York, Massachusetts and Florida drew the most Connecticut residents, respectively, with nearly 13,000 Connecticut residents moving to Florida.
As for those moving in from abroad and within the country, McGee notes a sizable portions of inbound migrants bring with them higher education degrees.
According to census data, between 2010 and 2014 1.8 percent of the population 25 and over moved into Connecticut from another state ”“ totaling 44,200 people. Out of that total, 24,000 of the movers had a bachelor”™s degree or higher.
“It speaks to the jobs here ”” jobs that require a high level of education,” McGee said. “Connecticut is a state where if you are smart you want to live here, we attract educated people.”
But both Gioia and McGee note that the true concern is not so much as who or how many are moving out of the state, but what those moving out are taking with them.
“There no is no story line that the moving vans are backed up, that is just not true and the data does not support that,” McGee said. “The key for us is ”” are we losing people who are earning more than people coming in?”
This concern was specifically addressed by Jeff Klaus, the Connecticut regional president for Webster Bank at the Norwalk Chamber of Commerce”™s 2016 economic forum.
“Between 2011 and 2013 27,000 people left Connecticut ”” taking with them $3.8 billion in income, Klaus told a crowd of more than a hundred people at the forum (see separate story pg. 1).
It is not just a financial loss that is a concern, but also the intellectual deficit, said McGee.
Between 2010 and 2014 population growth has begun to flatline, growing by approximately 19,000 people during that time. For the first time since 1991 the state”™s population decreased ”” an approximate drop of 3,000 people, according to census data.
“My own view is Connecticut needs to grow to 4 million over the next 5 years,” said McGee. “We need to grow at 100,000 a year and we need to step this up because we are seeing that we are not getting the labor force we need with the talent we need and we hear from our members consistently in the areas of engineer and digital information technology that we have a real gap in filling those jobs. We hear repeatedly that we do not have people in Connecticut with these skills and while our colleges are employing programs in these areas, it is not quick enough to fill the need.”
