A new Marist Poll released this morning by the polling operation at Marist College in Poughkeepsie shows that Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by five points among likely voters. When the universe polled is composed of registered voters instead of likely voters, however, the race is closer with Harris’ lead shrinking to three points. The polling was conducted between Oct. 8 and 10.
Marist found that Harris leads Trump 52% to 47% among likely voters nationally, including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate. Earlier this month, the poll found that two points separated Harris and Trump among likely voters, 50% to 48%. When registered voters were surveyed previously the same three point lead for Harris was found.
Trump leads Harris among men who are likely to vote, with 53% of the men saying they planned to vote for Trump while 47% said they would vote for Harris, according ton the poll. Among women, Harris leads with 57% compared with Trump’s 42%.
“There are two things to keep an eye on in the closing weeks of the presidential contest,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “First, when you look at those who are likely to vote, Harris does better. So higher turnout favors her. Second, don’t overlook that the gender gap, which is expected to be unusually high, cuts both ways. Trump carries men, and Harris carries women.”
The Marist Poll found that 44% of adults nationally have a favorable impression of Trump while 49% have an unfavorable one. For Harris, 45% of residents have a favorable opinion of Harris compared with 46% who have a negative impression of her.
The margin of error for the latest poll is plus or minus 3.9%.
