BY HUGH BAILEY
Hearst Connecticut Media
There’s a good reason why so many area towns and cities are fixated on their downtowns. It may be the best way to arrest a startling drop-off in the young working-age population in southwestern Connecticut.
According to data from Fitch Ratings, the number of residents in Fairfield County from 35 to 39 years old declined 26.5 percent between 2000 and 2013. Numbers also fell precipitously in the 30-to-34 and 40-to-44 age ranges, while rising among all other working-age groups.
The reasons for the drop are many.
“It could be a cyclical thing, where trends in terms of where people want to live have changed,” said Kevin Dolan, who analyzes towns in Fairfield County for Fitch. “In the past, it was maybe more the large suburban home, with large property,” that people were looking to buy. “It might be different now, maybe more of a downtown setting, more urban, closer to work, with less commuting.”
Environmental issues have taken greater precedence for many people, he said, with the ability to walk or bike to work seen as desirable.
“People are having less children, and they may be put off by having a large home and a high mortgage,” he said. “People are nervous as a result of the housing crisis, and maybe were burned by the housing crisis. They may be not wanting to take on debt, or maybe they’ve been having issues getting a mortgage.”
In response to declining numbers of young workers, many towns and cities in southwestern Connecticut have put more focus on their downtowns, with an emphasis on walkable communities with easy access to transit stops. Bridgeport and Stamford each have an established urban core, and farther-out towns like Trumbull and Shelton also are emphasizing the need for non-car-dependent development.
“From 2011 to 2013 in Fairfield County, the number of people in owner-occupied units dropped while the number in rental units has risen,” said Richard Park, who analyzes data for Fitch.
More seniors, fewer children
While some of the working-age population is declining, the numbers of older workers are surging, Fitch’s data show. From 2000 to 2013, the 60-64 contingent increased by half, with the 55-59 group up by 42.7 percent. It may be a reflection of the type of housing available in this region and who can afford to buy it, analysts said.
But an older population won’t necessarily mean a drain on services, because it tends to be a high-income group, Dolan said.
“Much of the population is seen as high-net-worth and can afford insurance,” he said. “They tend to be higher wealth and can afford services, and so are not a drain on the economy.”
Though the 65-plus age group as a whole grew by 14.1 percent since 2000, faster than other age groups in the region, it still lags the rest of the country, where the senior population increased 27.8 percent. As the last of the baby boom generation turns 50, those numbers are expected to stay high for years to come.
“The smaller numbers in the 65-plus range point to maybe as people get to retirement age, they may move out of state,” Park said. “It may not be growing as quickly here because retirees move to more tax-beneficial states, like Florida.”
As the numbers for senior citizens will keep rising in years to come, they aren’t being matched by the youngest contingent. Children from birth to 19 increased by only 2.4 percent in Fairfield County since 2000, nearly matching the national rate of 2.2 percent.
Having fewer younger adults in the county contributes to that trend.
“It might coincide with that 30- to 40-year-old population drop, with that the likely age for having children,” Dolan said. “We’re seeing the trend toward less children in most families or waiting until they’re older. Dual-income families tend to have children later.”
For the youngest group, the drop-off is starkest.
“It’s been a statewide trend,” Park said. “From 2000 to 2013 in Connecticut, the under-9 population dropped 12.9 percent; in Fairfield County it dropped 10.8 percent.”
That’s having an impact on school districts statewide, where nearly every town is predicting declining numbers in coming years.
“We are seeing those projections of a decline in future enrollment,” Dolan said.
Employment
Behind many of the comings and goings in the region is one factor above all ”“ jobs. Fairfield County lagged the nation in job creation and wage growth for much of the time period in question, leading many people to look elsewhere.
“Since the recession, Fairfield County job recovery and Connecticut as a whole has lagged the nation,” Park said. “That would point you to believe people are naturally going to have to find jobs where job creation is stronger.”
But there could be signs of a turnaround. “Job growth in Fairfield County prior to 2013 was extremely modest,” Dolan said. “But it has picked up tremendously in 2014,” he said, meaning some of the migration trends could be shifting.
“Connecticut housing prices have lagged other states, as well, and that is starting to turn around,” he said, adding that lower housing values could have the benefit of attracting buyers into the region.
While Fairfield County is viewed as expensive compared to most of the country, it can be a bargain next to neighboring Westchester County, N.Y., and New York City, which helps explain positive net migration numbers from those locations.
“There are most likely cost factors at play, because moving to Connecticut can be a positive in terms of income or property tax from New York City and Westchester,” Park said. “For some moving out of New York City, it’s people who want to get to a more suburban area, and that plays a part, as well. Fairfield County is clearly a desirable place for commuting.”
And trends that have seen younger adults moving out in droves may not last much longer.
“We’ve looked at the numbers all through 2013, and we’re starting to see a turnaround in job growth, with the unemployment rate going down, across the state,” Dolan said. “Housing prices are starting to turn that corner, too.”
New patterns of development could help make the difference.
“We’re seeing localities trying to make some changes, whether through apartment-style housing or beefing up downtowns, trying to appeal to the younger generation,” Dolan said. “We’re seeing both senior and middle-income housing developers trying to attract and focus on that sector.”
Hearst Connecticut Media includes four daily newspapers: Connecticut Post, Greenwich Time, The Advocate (Stamford) and The News Times (Danbury). See ctpost.com for more from this reporter.
