The housing market appears to be coasting to a soft landing after a historic freefall.
Between the fourth quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010, the number of single-family homes sold in Dutchess County fell 29.9 percent, from 702 units to 492. But when the numbers are parsed to reflect just the second half of 2010, the decline was just 0.2 percent between the third and fourth quarters.
The housing slump of the Great Recession is waning, based upon statistics released recently by the New York State Association of Realtors (NYSAR), which offered a raft of data as part of a 2010 statewide picture. The state saw a decline of 4.6 percent in home sales compared with 2009, but the median price statewide over the year was up by 10.3 percent.
In county after county, even among stagnation relative to a few years ago, there is a number to hang a smile on.
“What I see definitely, we see a slowing of the downturn,” said Ann Garti, president and CEO of both the Hudson Valley Multiple Listing Service and the Orange County Association of Realtors. “However, I think we have to temper ourselves by the knowledge there is a large shadow inventory that we don”™t have a handle on and that could have an impact on the market that we have not yet ascertained. I think we definitely saw ”“ it”™s hard to call it an improvement ”“ an amelioration of the decline in value of home prices. I think in part that”™s due to an improving economy, but I don”™t see a dramatic improvement until such time as people are more confident about the security of their jobs and their ability to get jobs.
“Without the federal homebuyer tax credit, we would undoubtedly be telling a much different story about the Empire State”™s 2010 housing market,” said NYSAR CEO Duncan R. MacKenzie in written comments that accompanied the data. “The tax credit, low mortgage rates and large inventory combined to help New York state homebuyers overcome larger concerns about the economy.”
In Orange County, the fourth quarter ”™09 to fourth quarter ”™10 sales figures fell 34.8 percent (635 to 414 units), but stabilized in the second half of 2010, falling just 4.6 percent between the third and fourth quarters.
Putnam”™s 4Q ”™09 to 4Q ”™10 home sales were down 19.5 percent (from 169 to 136 units). The numbers fell just 2.3 percent during the second half of 2010.
Rockland”™s 4Q ”™09 to 4Q ”™10 home unit sales fell 24 percent (from 371 units to 282). The numbers fell 7.2 percent in the second half of 2010.
In Ulster County, 4Q ”™09 to 4Q ”™10 home unit sales were off 20.8 percent, a figure that rebounded to 12.2 percent on the plus side with a jump of 29 units in 4Q (to 266 units) over 3Q.
Westchester”™s 4Q ”™09 to 4Q ”™10 home unit sales were off 18 percent and continued their descent between 3Q and 4Q of 2010, down 31.1 percent. Westchester”™s 2010 median sales price of $630,000 would have priced many buyers out of the first-time market and its federal largesse. (Westchester”™s 3Q 2010 median sales figure was $730,000, a swing likely attributable to the sale of very high-end properties, and more than $100,000 above the median price of its statistical readings for 4Q ”™08 at $569,000; 4Q ”™09 at $560,000; and the 4Q ”™10 number of $577,750.)
The 2010 annual statewide median sales price was $215,000, up 10.3 percent from 2009, NYSAR reported. The fourth quarter 2010 median sales price of $219,900 was up 7.3 percent from the 2009 fourth quarter. Broken down by month, the December 2010 median sales price was up further still, to $225,000.
Regionally, NYSAR”™s median sales figures by county across the last three years tell a tale of the good old days followed by the rockier, more-recent history that could be ending:
Dutchess: 2008 ”“ $310,000; 2009 ”“ $275,000; 2010 ”“ $270,000.
Putnam: $373,000; $335,000; $315,000.
Rockland: $450,000; $420,000; $415,000.
Orange: $290,000; $260,000; $255,000.
Ulster: $240,000; $209,000; $214,000.
Westchester: $650,000; $580,000; $630,000.
NYSAR weighed in on the looming budget fights in Albany. Said McKenzie: “With little chance of another significant federal home buying incentive, the future of housing in our state may well be dictated by how state lawmakers address the enormous state budget deficit, a struggling overall economy and crippling property taxes. New York”™s REALTORS are hopeful and supportive of Gov. Cuomo”™s efforts to cap property tax growth, and efforts to revitalize the state”™s economy and create jobs will be a significant factor in the future of the housing market.”
