Bob Dylan, the troubadour of the 1960s and ”˜70s, has something to say to this muddled age:
Come senators, congressmen
Please heed the call
Don”™t stand in the doorway
Don”™t block up the hall
For he that gets hurt
Will be he who has stalled
There”™s a battle outside and it is ragin”™
It”™ll soon shake your windows and rattle your walls
For the times they are a-changin”™
Gridlock in Congress today has far more consequences for the country than any in 1963 when this song was written. The American public and its elected representatives, faced with dire predictions on energy security and the stability of the climate, are instead desperately trying to hold on to the status quo no matter the consequences.
Since we seem to be in a casino culture we should look at the odds of beating the inexorable changes already in progress in the Earth. They are more than poor. They are non-existent. In spite of that there is no groundswell for getting a grip on the wasteful “American way of life.”
Challenge me
The comment frequently heard during this last significant snow storm ”“ “Whatever happened to global warming?” ”“ does not display a brain with a global perspective. Some have even expressed a positive response to the prospect of a warmer Northeast. Be careful what you wish for.
Having written this column for five years and commented frequently on the matter of peak oil and climate change, two sides of the same coin, I need to hear more from readers. Do you write off these issues as a scare tactic and not based on reality, as U.S. Sen. James Imhofe, R-Okla., is fond of saying, or are you beginning to wonder if maybe you should pay attention? Challenge me or agree with me but give me some feedback.
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As Dylan points out ”“ The times they are a-changin”™. Inattention to the issues of climate change and future fuel shortages, and therefore food shortages, will exact a very high price on businesses and the public if not acknowledged and acted on ASAP.
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Robert H. Frank, a columnist for the New York Times business section, wrote an assessment of these issues in a Feb. 21 piece titled ”“ “A Small Price for a Large Benefit.”
Frank focuses on the matter of global warming and the impact of real numbers. In this piece he tries in a very measured way to alert readers to the real dangers of even a 3.6-degree change in global temperature. Bear in mind that any number is an average, meaning that it could be warmer in some parts of the world and cooler in another part. Either way it is not good for the human species, which can only exist in a rather narrow temperature range.
Playing it cool?
An MIT model estimates a zero probability of the temperature rising by less than 3.6 degrees by 2100, according to Frank. Even at that level we can expect widespread loss of life by the end of this century. That means that our grandchildren and their children will be trying to survive in a world that is becoming intolerably warm in many countries and continents.
The past decade was the warmest on record and the ice melt in the Arctic and the Antarctic is occurring faster than had been projected, the calving of the icebergs giving a vivid picture of what climate change actually looks like.
To be sure, there have been some serious errors made in the scientific community in recent months and it has given doubters some needed ammunition. However, the vast majority of the global scientific community is in agreement regarding the gravity of impending climate change.
As to why it is so difficult to get the public”™s attention regarding the seriousness of global climate change Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert, writing in the Los Angeles Times in 2006, puts it this way ”“ “Global warming is bad but it doesn”™t make us nauseated or angry or disgraced, and thus we don”™t feel compelled to rail against it as we do against other momentous threats to our species, such as flag burning.”
As Frank says, “We don”™t know how much hotter the planet will become by 2100. But the fact that we face ”˜only”™ a 10 percent chance of a catastrophic 12-degree climb surely does not argue for inaction. It calls for immediate, decisive steps.”
Surviving the Future explores a wide range of subjects to assist businesses in adapting to a new energy age. Maureen Morgan, a transit advocate, is on the board of Federated Conservationists of Westchester. Reach her at maureenmorgan10@verizon.net.
