A ‘Bah! Humbug!’ season?
The ebullient Howard Davidowitz is no Ebenezer Scrooge. But the chairman of Davidowitz & Associates, a national retail consulting and investment banking firm based in Manhattan, has a “Bah! Humbug!” forecast for the upcoming holiday shopping season.
“We don”™t think it”™s too good,” he says. “First, the economy is wrecked. We have the highest unemployment in years: Factor in underemployment, and it”™s 17 percent. Forty-four million people are on food stamps. The consumer is wrecked, and the president is deranged and dysfunctional.”
That said, he does see some silver linings:
“Luxury sales will be good, with Wall Street paying out its biggest bonuses yet, $144 billion ”“ that”™s billion with a ”˜b.”™ Online sales will be strong. People can compare prices. They don”™t have to run around to 10 stores. And the under-seller, the extreme value retailer, will do well.”
Holiday season is here already
This reflects the trend, even among those who can afford to spend, to shop in thrift and discount stores. Another trend: The holiday season ”“ which officially begins on “Black Friday,” the day after Thanksgiving ”“ actually now gets off the ground right after Halloween, with mainstream stores offering the kind of discounts you used to see right before Christmas or just after. This is smart pricing, Davidowitz says, adding, “(the stores) know they have to keep marking down goods.”
Better, he says, to sell something at a discount in the beginning than to have to mark it down steeply later on.
Kohl”™s is among the stores that got a jump on the season with its two-day “Mega Christmas Sale” Nov. 12 and 13 that gave nightowls and early birds $10 back for every $50 they spent.
According to Retailing Today, an e-mail newsletter about the industry, retailers are also aggressively pursuing online shoppers. JCPenney, Walmart, Kmart and Target are offering free ship-to-store and/or free home-shipping to online shoppers this season.
Meanwhile, Sears has brought its “Wish Book” catalog to Facebook.
Q3 surpasses some estimates
Some of these retailers are heading into the holidays with confidence after posting third-quarter figures that met or exceeded analysts”™ estimates. Macy”™s sales were up 6.6 percent to around $5.6 billion, with same-store sales increasing 3.9 percent. Kohl”™s sales increased 4.1 percent to $4.2 billion, with same-store sales rising 1.8 percent. And JCPenney, whose third-quarter sales of about $4.2 billion were flat, nonetheless saw same-store sales increase 1.9 percent.
Still, Loehmann”™s — the discount designer chain, which has a store in White Plains ”“ has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection to reorganize, hardly the tidings of comfort and joy you want to hear at holiday time.
Davidowitz thinks the clouded holiday shopping forecast is about a lot more than store sales. It”™s about the end of a way of life:
“We”™re moving into a new world. ”¦ Shopping is never going to be the same. Our standard of living is never going to be the same.”