Guignol

Hot enough for you?

Get used to it. Pass the sunscreen. And keep an eye on the infrastructure.

On Sept. 12, the Poughkeepsie Area Chamber of Commerce breakfast featured a presentation by climate change expert Dr. William Schlesinger, who recently joined the staff of the Institute of Ecological Studies, an international center for scientific research and education based in Millbrook. The breakfast was held at the Wallace Center at the Franklin & Eleanor Roosevelt Institute, in Hyde Park, and was sponsored by Marist College.

Schlesinger, who recently left his position as a tenured professor of chemistry at Duke University to relocate in the Hudson Valley, presented a compelling record of evidence of the dramatic increase in carbon dioxide in the earth”™s atmosphere in the past 50 years. Chart after chart showed the same pattern of a steeply ascendant line indicating either more CO2 or higher temperatures. Data he presented included:

Ӣ Ice cores taken from Antarctica and Greenland. Scientists measure the amount of CO2 in the bubbles of air trapped in the ice, which provide a record of the atmosphere when the ice was formed. In 900 A.D. the CO2 measured between 275 and 285 parts per million; the CO2 began to increase around 1850 and today measures about 380 parts per million. Schlesinger said the CO2 is currently increasing at a rate of a couple of parts per million a year, which is unprecedented.

Ӣ Satellite measurement of temperatures around the globe, collected for several decades. The highest increase in temperatures over the past 20 years is in the northern latitudes: Alaska, Canada and northern Scandinavia, and at the poles. A less-extreme belt of warming was also recorded in the southern hemisphere, with the equatorial areas remaining almost the same.

Ӣ Weather bureau records dating back to the late 1800s. The early years were colder than average, but beginning in the early 1900s most of the years are warmer, with 2006 being the warmest year on record.

Ӣ Records of the temperature of the Hudson River from the water treatment plant at Poughkeepsie, which date back to the 1940s. The Hudson is warming, with steep increases in temperature in the last few years.

Ӣ Records from the U.S. Geological Survey showing when the ice pack broke up in various rivers in the Northeast, including the Hudson. On average, the ice is breaking up a month earlier now than in the mid-1800s.

Ӣ Tree rings collected by a Penn State professor who looked at the amount of oxygen isotopes in the cellulose for each ring. The rings dated from 1000 A.D. and show that the average temperature was cooler relative to the temperature in the 1990s from 1000 to 1850 but was warmer on average starting in the last century. There was quite a variation of temperature over the last 1,000 years, including a mini Ice Age around 1450, but nothing as extreme as the abrupt upward curve showing the increase in temperature in the last 20 years.

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Schlesinger said that according to the geologic record, the last time the earth was this warm was 25 million years ago, when the CO2 levels in the atmosphere approached 400 parts per million. That level should be reached in a few years at the current rate of increase, he said.

He also presented a computer chart predicting the trend for the future. A 2 degree increase in temperature is expected to occur between 2020 and 2030 in the northern latitudes. He said the greatest increase in warming will occur at the poles during the winter and at night.

Maps depicting the type of forest covering the East and Midwest in the U.S. today versus 50 to 70 years in the future showed the northern mixed deciduous forest that currently covers the Northeast completely disappearing, replaced by hickory-oak forest, which today is found in the Southeast.

“Lumber executives should have a climatologist at the table when they”™re deciding what to plant in anticipation of future harvests,” said Schlesinger. “There”™s a chance the forest could change.”

Shifts in rainfall are also expected as the result of the climate warming. A map of the U.S. comparing rainfall patterns of 1980-”™90 with 2080-”™90 predicted that while the far West would get more rainfall in the future, the Great Plains, where much of the nation”™s food is grown, and the Southeast would suffer a 10 percent to 20 percent decline in rainfall. The Northeast would also get less rain, though not to the same extreme.

Global warming “will have an impact on world grain prices that will affect us all,” said Schlesinger.

He added that the change in climate will also affect insect populations. Future hot spots for malaria, due to warming, include the Gulf Coast. In the future, the type of cases arriving for treatment in the emergency rooms of medical centers will be different, with malaria and West Nile Virus being more common, he said.

A final piece of evidence he presented was rather startling: two satellite photos of the same region of Antarctica showing the break up of an ice shelf the size of Rhode Island, which was intact in 2002. “That ice was there for 10,000 to 12,000 years,” Schlesinger said. Ice that covers land and melts is a particular concern, since it will result in higher ocean levels.

As it is, “the sea level has been rising 3 millimeters a year since 1950,” with a much greater increase in recent years, Schlesinger said. Higher seas will result in tidal flooding in the Hudson, potentially putting the Metro-North tracks running along the eastern side of the river in jeopardy and affecting other infrastructure along the river as well, such as water treatment plants and housing developments.

“Infrastructure built today for the current climate may be obsolete for the future,” he said.

The increased warming of the oceans has been tracked by Navy data, which has been recording surface temperatures since the 1930s. This is linked to an increase in the intensity of hurricanes.

Schlesinger advocated more spending now to combat the problem of climate change, noting that doing nothing will result in much higher costs.  He advised citizens to put pressure on policymakers to start taking action and was in support of more educational nature programs for children, to increase awareness of the environment.

The event was attended by a number of public officials, including two Dutchess County legislators, the Dutchess County executive, the county clerk, district attorney, and health commissioner, several town supervisors, the mayor of Poughkeepsie, the president of Dutchess Community College, and numerous representatives from Marist College.

Schlesinger was a tenured professor at Duke for 27 years. He has written dozens of papers on the subject of climate change, according to an introduction by Charles North, president of the Poughkeepsie Area Chamber of Commerce. His research has been featured on Nova, NPR, CNN, the Discovery Channel, The New York Times and Scientific America, and he has testified before Congress on the issues of CO2 emissions, carbon sequestration, desertification and global warming.