Dems expected to retain state seats; Federal campaigns tougher to call
The “blue tsunami” being predicted in the Nov. 3 elections will keep Democrats”™ majority in both houses of the Connecticut General Assembly and of the New York State Legislature ”“ although predicting what will happen on the federal level remains a little trickier.
Still smarting from the results of the 2016 Presidential election ”“ when nearly every poll and pundit predicted a Hillary Clinton win, only to see Donald Trump march to a 304-227 electoral college victory ”“ observers are hedging their bets on this year”™s Trump-Joe Biden match-up.
The former Vice President “is certainly the favorite,” U.S. Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut) told the Business Journal. “I think Joe is going to win, but it could be close ”“ closer probably than the polls are indicating.”
As of Oct. 26, Biden was leading Trump in national polls by a 9% to 10% margin. While Trump has gained some ground over the past couple of weeks, he is still significantly behind where he was against Clinton ”“ down by 4% — at roughly the same time in 2016.
While saying he”™s not in the habit of predicting Presidential elections, Gary Rose, professor and chair, Government, Politics and Global Studies at Sacred Heart University, allowed that “it”™s looking pretty bleak” for the incumbent.
“There would have to be a massive election-day turnout” for Trump to turn the corner, Rose said ”“ something necessary due to widespread belief that the enormous number of pre-election voting this year, driven in large part by the Covid-19 pandemic.
According to a survey of election officials in all 50 states and the District of Columbia by CNN, Edison Research and Catalist, more than 58.7 million Americans had voted as of Oct. 25, compared with 58.3 million four years ago. Rose said that, historically, more Democrats and independents than Republicans tend to cast their votes before Election Day; reports by various firms, including Hawkfish further indicate that the Democrats are turning out more newly registered and “low-frequency” voters than their GOP counterparts.
Both Rose and Gayle Alberda, a professor of Politics and Public Administration at Fairfield University, said that Millennials, widely held to represent the single largest voting bloc this year, will further help tip the balance in Biden”™s favor.
“They tend to lean Democrat,” Alberda said. “They care about the environment, health care, going to a good and affordable college, as well as gun control, climate change, Black Lives Matter. They”™re feisty, gung-ho, and ready to go ”“ they”™re more politically engaged than earlier generations.
“There are more first-time voters in my classes this year than there were four years ago,” she added. “Now I have kids who aren”™t even my students coming up and asking, ”˜How do I register?”™”
Murphy echoed other observers by saying that Biden needs not only to win, but to win big, in order to avoid another result where the electoral college, rather than the popular vote. That happened not just in 2016, when Clinton beat Trump by about 2.87 million votes cast, but also in 2000, when Al Gore received roughly 544,000 more votes than George W. Bush, who (eventually) was declared the winner by a 271-266 electoral college margin.
The senator called the electoral college system “so undemocratic,” and said that Biden would need to win by at least 8 points to avoid Clinton”™s fate, as well as to significantly lessen speculation that the election was somehow rigged.
Murphy also addressed rumors that he could be a candidate for U.S. Secretary of State if the former V.P. wins the election.
“I”™m focused on our winning this race, and continuing to help Connecticut do well. I love the job I have,” he said.
So does that mean he would not accept any cabinet position if asked?
“I”™m planning on being helpful to Biden” after the election, he said, “from the U.S. Senate.”
U.S. Senate
Murphy further said that, thanks in part to “Donald Trump”™s abysmal response to Covid,” his party stands a good chance of taking control of the U.S. Senate, which currently consists of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats and two independents; the latter, Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont, caucus with the Democrats.
“Alaska, Kansas and Texas are all in play this year” when it comes to Senate races, Murphy said. “It”™s really important that we win ”“ (Senate Majority Leader) Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) has been really bad for Connecticut, including his refusal to negotiate over another coronavirus stimulus package.
“That really hurts us,” Murphy continued. “His views are just not aligned with the views of the people I represent in Connecticut.”
Even so, for the Democrats to win at least three seats ”“ a 50-50 tie in the Senate is broken by the Vice President ”“ to take the Senate, Murphy said, “We”™re going to have to grind it out.”
Both Rose and Alberda said the “down ticket” effect of such a divisive figure as Trump could play a big part in the Senate, as well as the Connecticut General Assembly, races.
“He hasn”™t built the wall, not gotten the immigration policy he wanted, was doing well with the economy but not anymore,” Alberda said. “Plus he”™s the incumbent this time, so there”™s more of a focus on his record ”“ or lack thereof.”
“A lot of voting is based on how you feel about someone,” Rose said. “There was a lot of visceral dislike of Hillary Clinton, but that”™s not really true of Joe Biden. With Trump, his behavior has meant that a lot of people just can”™t support him again. And that first debate (against Biden) didn”™t help.”
Growing antipathy towards Trump was seen in the 2018 midterms, Alberda said, when the Democrats picked up 41 seats in the House of Representatives; although the GOP picked up two Senate seats, it had expected to do considerably better. Democrats also picked up seven governorships.
“My guess is there”™s going to be a very close split (in the U.S. Senate) and the Vice President will become a much more important position for the next four years ”“ or the next two years,” she said. “Republicans will probably hold it, by a very slim majority, which will encourage more bipartisanship.”
Rose also shot down one of Trump”™s declarations at the Oct. 22 debate. “No, the Republicans are not going to take back the House,” he said. “That”™s a foregone conclusion.”
In New York, the only tossup election on the House side is in the 11th Congressional district, where Democrat incumbent Max Rose is involved in a mud-slinging campaign against Republican Nicole Malliotakis. Within Westchester, Democrat Jamaal Bowman ”“ who defeated incumbent Eliot Engel in the party primary ”“ is expected to defeat Conservative Party candidate Patrick McManus (no Republican filed) in the 16th District.
In the 17th, Democrat Mondaire Jones is expected to hold onto the seat held by Nita Lowey, who is retiring after 16 terms. His opposition is Maureen McArdle-Schulman (R) and several independent candidates.
In the 18th, incumbent Democrat Sean Patrick Maloney is expected to defeat Republican challenger Chele Farley.
Alberda opined that a general population shift from the Northeast to the South and Southwest will help spread “those liberal Yankee values,” which would potentially pose further difficulties for the GOP in the next two election cycles.
NY State Legislature
Democrats are expected to maintain their majorities in both the Empire State”™s Senate and Assembly, which currently are 105-43 (with one independent and one Working Families member) and 40-23, respectively. Democratic voter enrollment continues to rise, while Republican enrollment is on the decline.
Within Westchester County, in the Senate Democrats Alessandra Biaggi (34th) is expected to easily defeat Republican James Gisondi; Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins (35th) is running unopposed; Jamaal Bailey (36th) looks to triumph over Conservative Party candidate Robert Diamond; Shelley Mayer (37th) appears to be safe over Republican Liviu Saimovici; and James Skoufis (39th) looks to defeat Republican Steve Brescia.
In the race to replace Sen. David Carlucci (D) ”“ defeated by the aforementioned Jones in his quest to replace Lowey in D.C. — in the 38th, Democrat Elijah Reichlin-Melnick is likely to defeat Republican William Weber Jr., though the race is considered to be in play. And in the 40th, where former Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino (R) is challenging Democrat Peter Harckham; the results of that race are expected to be close.
CT General Assembly
Meanwhile, the Connecticut statehouse looks to remain firmly in Democratic control.
“Again, it will probably carry down to straight-ticket voting,” Rose said. “If you have high turnout, that favors the Democrats, and there”™s every indication we”™re going to have a high turnout (in the state). In addition, this is not Trump country. I wouldn”™t be surprised if the Democrats pick up a seat or two.”
“There”™s really not a lot of leverage for Republicans to run on,” remarked Alberda. “The main issues that everyone was talking about in 2019, like tolls, went completely off the radar when the pandemic hit.
“And for the most part, there”™s pretty solid support for what (Gov. Ned) Lamont has done in response to the pandemic,” she continued. “It”™s not like Michigan, where they”™re trying to strip the governor of her powers.”
Both Alberda and Rose predicted that, if anything, state Democrats could pick up more seats; the party increased its Senate presence by five in 2018, breaking what had been an 18-18 tie, and gained 12 seats in the House.
Once again, dislike of Trump could have an effect on the state elections. “The GOP could pick up a couple of seats, but overall the Dems are still going to have control,” Alberda said. “There”™s just something in the air this year.”