Small business optimism heads south

Small-business optimism remained in tepid territory in June, according to a national small-business trade group, with health care uncertainties fueling the malaise.

The Nashville-based National Federation of Independent Business”™ monthly economic index dropped just under a point (0.9), registering an NFIB metric of 93.5 across the 10 indexes it charts. The number was 94.4 in June, which had witnessed a rebound of 12 points above the recession lows of two years ago.

Six of the 10 index components fell, two rose and two were unchanged. While job creation plans in one index increased slightly in June, expectations for improved business conditions in another index remained negative.

The entire index has been teetering between modest increases and declines for months, the NFIB reported.

“After two months of incremental but solid gains, the index gave up in June,” said NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg. “This appears par for the course, given that there is no reason for small employers to be more optimistic and lots of things to worry about.

“Washington remains bogged down in scandals and confidence in government”™s ability to deal with our fundamental problems remains low,” he said.

“Economic growth was revised down for the first quarter of the year and the outlook for the second quarter is not looking good. Nothing cheers up a small-business owner more than a customer, and they remain scarce and cautious while consumer spending remains weak and more owners are reporting negative sales trends than positive ones. It certainly doesn’t help that the endless stream of delays and capitulations of certain provisions of the healthcare law add to the uncertainty felt by owners. Until growth returns to the small-business half of the economy, it will be hard to generate meaningful economic growth and job creation.”