HGAR’s New York real estate market predictionsÂ
The Hudson Gateway Association of Realtors Inc. (HGAR) and OneKey MLS hosted a virtual panel on Feb. 9, featuring real estate experts who discussed how the New York market is shaping up so far this year and where it”™s headed. Leaders from First Republic Bank, Marketproof Inc. and Miller Samuel Inc. walked through what the data tells us about the interest-rate environment and the current state of the region”™s unique market dynamics.
”¯“Crunching the Numbers: Buy, Hold or Sell?” featured”¯Marissa S. Tracey,”¯managing director, relationship management, First Republic Bank;”¯Kael Goodman,”¯president and CEO, Marketproof; and”¯Jonathan Miller, president and CEO, Miller Samuel Inc.”¯The event was moderated by Brian D. Tormey, NTP, president of TitleVest, a leading New York City-based provider of title insurance and related real estate services.
”¯Tracey started off with a summary of the interest rate environment and predictions for what will happen next, which includes two more rate increases with a terminal rate of 5% by the end of May.
”¯“Inventory is chronically low, with Westchester”™s being the lowest on record, and we”™re seeing this across every housing market,” Miller said. “2023 will be ”˜the year of disappointment,”™ because sellers won”™t get buyers at 2021 and early 2022 prices, and buyers aren”™t going to see any massive improvement in inventory, affordability or in rates any time soon. On the bright side, this is a sign the economy is strong.”
Others were equally realistic but more optimistic.
“We saw a trend last year where the market started out really strong and then started to decelerate in the third and fourth quarters,” said Richard Haggerty, CEO of OneKey MLS, the regional multiple listing service that covers nearly a dozen counties in the greater New York City area from Manhattan (New York County) to Suffolk, Westchester and Sullivan counties. “Right now, we”™re seeing the product of that deceleration and will start to see a lot of activity for the spring market, because buyers have been on the sidelines waiting to see what would happen. But now that we”™re beginning to have stability in interest rates and pricing, things are going to get going again.”
The discussion soon turned to affordable housing, and Goodman shared his perspective on steps to a solution:
”¯“The issue related to housing in New York City has got to be solved in City Hall and the governor”™s office. The next phase is about government stimulus. The governor has proposed elongating the period to build under the 421-a tax exemption, but there are various zoning issues, and the cost of capital looks like it will remain an issue still for a while, so it”™s going to require local leadership. The good news is, we do have a governor and a mayor who will talk to each other. We have a very complicated thing going on, and we don”™t have enough perspective yet to figure it out.”
”¯The webinar is part of the “Be Your Best” series created by HGAR and OneKey MLS to help Realtors and agents navigate a changing landscape. The event was sponsored by TitleVest. For more, view the webinar”¯here.