Marist Poll updates 2024 presidential contest

A new NPR/PBS News Hour/Marist Poll indicates that the 2024 presidential election is extremely close, with President Biden scoring 48% to Donald Trump’s 47% among registered voters nationwide. Participants in the poll responded to the question of for whom they would vote if the election were held today.

The Marist Poll originates from the Institute for Public Opinion, a survey research center at Marist College in Poughkeepsie. The institute was founded in 1978 and was the first college-based research center to include undergraduates in conducting survey research. More than 400 students at Marist work on polling each semester.

The polls generally are conducted for three to five days using telephone surveys and other methods for data collection. The students manually dial the phone numbers of people selected to be prat of the representative sample and conduct live interviews.

The poll released Oct. 4 has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7%, so the difference between Biden and Trump is within the margin of error, underscoring just how tight the contest has become. Trump faces federal criminal trials as well as state criminal charges in Georgia and the New York state civil trial in which he, family members and The Trump Organization have been found guilty of business fraud.

The poll found that among independent voters, Trump leads Biden by 8%, racking up 50% of the vote compared with Biden’s 42%. Among those surveyed, 43% had a favorable view of Biden while 51% viewed him unfavorably. Trump had a 38% favorable rating with 56% giving him an unfavorable rating.

The poll found that 75% of registered voters believe Trump did something illegal or unethical and that 32% would want him as president again even if he were convicted of criminality.

When asked whether they approve of the job President Biden has been doing, 42% said they approve while 50% said they disapprove.

According to Lee Miringoff, director of Marist’s Institute for Public Opinion, “Despite a whirlwind of activity around them, Americans’ views of Biden and Trump remain locked in. At this point, a notable number of voters are considering a third-party option, but that does little to change the competitive contest between Biden and Trump.”