M&T sees light at end of tunnel

Savings are up. Credit card defaults are down. Bad loans are down.

Is there an “amen” in the house?

But temper the celebration with word from the same statistics that brought the good news: Half of us say we”™re still in a recession.

With more than 700 East Coast branches and regional headquarters in Tarrytown and Fishkill, M&T Bank relies on Gary Keith, its regional economist, to wrestle with the dismal science and make sense of the torrent of numbers that, until now, have been almost universally sobering, bordering on coma-inducing.

“A lot of consumers gritted their teeth during the recession, and they”™re now breathing a sigh of relief,” Keith said via written statement. “They”™ve clearly been working hard to control their debt levels and pay bills promptly and we”™re now seeing a lot of signs that the resilient American consumer is in better financial health entering 2011.”

M&T recently partnered with New York City-based GfK Custom Research North America to poll 1,000 randomly selected adults. The results:

”¢ Nearly 80 percent reported having little-to-no debt or a “comfortable” level of debt.

”¢ Twelve percent reported having “more debt than is comfortable.”

”¢ Eight percent “have too much debt and have trouble paying bills.”

Keith has an MBA from SUNY Buffalo and is a member of the National Association of Business Economics, the American Economic Association and the Business Trends Committee of the Rochester Business Alliance. He reports to, among others, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

While consumers are feeling comfortable with their own debt levels, the M&T report said, they are less upbeat on the health of the economy. Fifty percent said they think the national economy is “still in a recession.” That figure is down just 6 percent from 10 months ago when a similar survey conducted for M&T revealed 56 percent of consumers said the economy was “still in recession.”

M&T Bank”™s consumer loan charge-off rate dropped 23 percent in 2010 and credit card defaults were down by an unspecified amount. The national savings rate in the last two years has risen from 2 percent to 5.3 percent, the bank said.

Consumer spending could take a hit, based on the data. When asked what they were likely to do in the next year to reduce personal debt, 65 percent said they were likely to spend less. Twenty-five percent said they would raid their savings.

Consumers in the 25-49 demographic reported the most difficulty with debts. Twenty-nine percent reported “more debt than is comfortable” or “too much debt.”

The debt numbers were healthier among those both older and younger: Seven percent of consumers age 18-24 and 17 percent of consumers age 50 and above reported being uncomfortable with their debt or are having trouble paying debts.

Nearly two-thirds of those polled said they “definitely would” or “probably would” be able to get another bank loan if needed.

M&T maintains deposits in excess of $68 billion and employs 14,000 nationally.