Down, but not out
At her brokerage business in Bronxville, Westchester County Board of Realtors President Leah Caro has seen “a paralysis” in the lower Westchester housing market in the economic turmoil of recent months. Sellers cannot find buyers for their homes and so cannot move up to the larger, more expensive houses they want to purchase.
In the village of Bronxville, the high-end housing market “since September has had one house go under contract.” Caro”™s Bronxville-Ley Real Estate L.L.C. had that listing.
The affluent village is home to numerous bankers, hedge fund managers and others in the decimated financial services sector. Their uncertainty and apprehension about their professional futures and earnings accounts for the virtual halt in house sales there, Caro said.
In the Yonkers, Mount Vernon and Eastchester market served by her company, first-time buyers ”“ “but not enough” ”“ are obtaining mortgages if they can show lenders a solid credit record, good income and acceptable debt-to-income ratios. More people are buying condominiums. The houses sold are in the $500,000 to $600,000 range, she said. In that market, “Yonkers is the strongest probably because property taxes are the lowest” there, Caro said.
For homebuyers, “Underwriting is taking a while longer. They”™re not getting them overnight like they were four or five years ago, which is probably good. We”™re righting this mess.”
Throughout Westchester County, sales of existing single-family homes in November dropped 37.4 percent from November 2007 and 39.3 percent from November 2006, according to the state Association of Realtors. A total of 218 Westchester homes were sold in November, compared with 348 the previous year. The November slump well exceeded a statewide decline in year-to-year sales volume of 26.5 percent for the month.
Westchester”™s median sales price in November of $561,250 was down 12.3 percent from the previous year but was still the highest among counties in the state. The next highest, Queens, reported a median sales price of $502,500 in November. The statewide median for the month was $210,000, the same as in November 2007.
In the lower and mid-Hudson Valley region, Orange County saw the greatest year-to-year slump in sales volume in November, dropping 44.2 percent with 125 homes sold compared with 224 in November 2007.
Sales of existing single-family homes in neighboring counties were: Dutchess County, 137 sold, down 23.5 percent from November 2007; Putnam, 47 sold, down 16.1 percent; Rockland, 77, down 12.5 percent; Ulster, 67 sold, down 27.2 percent.
Median sales prices for existing single-family homes in November were: Dutchess, $300,000, down 4.8 percent from November 2007; Orange County, $285,000, down 9.9 percent; Putnam, $335,000, down 17.1 percent; Rockland, $415,000, down 7.8 percent; Ulster, $205,000, down 20.9 percent.
“The market is trying to find its bottom” for both prices and sales volume, said Gregory S. Rand, managing partner at Prudential Rand Realty in White Plains. Citing the November sales drop in Westchester, “a 37 percent decline in sales activity is likely to be the bottom,” he said.
Prudential Rand Realty brokers sold 180 homes in November in Westchester, Rockland and Orange counties, compared with normal November sales of 280 to 300 homes. The company sold about 3,500 houses for the year, about 1,000 less than in a typical year. Given the predictions of economic disaster and the fall stock market collapse, “It”™s almost surprising that anyone bought a house,” Rand said.
Home sales prices for December, not yet reported, will be down about 15 percent, he predicted. “That”™s good for the market. The sooner we digest that correction, the sooner we can get back to a strong market again”¦It”™s going to get ugly before it gets pretty again.” After a two-year boom in appreciated house values “that was all erroneous” and began to turn at the start of 2007, the market “has to correct back to the 2004 levels”¦We”™re getting pretty close to that now.”
Rand said calls to his company”™s realty offices have risen to 2004 levels, one indication of “a pent-up demand” from home buyers who aren”™t yet “pulling the trigger.”
“I think the spring is going to be OK” for sales. “I don”™t think it”™s going to be gangbusters, but it will be better than ”™08.”
In Bronxville, Caro said she hopes for a “trickle-up effect” this year as first-time buyers, taking advantage of low mortgage rates, allow sellers to buy up in the market.
“It”™s a great time to buy a house,” she said. “It”™s safer than investing your money in the stock market.”