A new national survey is offering a pessimistic view on third-quarter hiring intentions across many sectors of the economy.
According to the ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey that polled more than 7,700 U.S. employers in April and May, only 17% respondents expected to grow payrolls during the third quarter of 2020, down from 23% in the previous quarter. And 11% anticipated a decrease in their payroll, up from 3% percent in the previous quarter, with 62% expecting no change.
ManpowerGroup noted that once its data was adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the net employment outlook for the next three months was 3%, the weakest hiring plan uptick since 2009. The outlook also represented a 16% quarter-over-quarter decline and an 18% year-over-year drop.
Regionally, the hiring outlooks in the Midwest and the West were both down by 16% and the Northeast recorded a 13% slump, with only the Midwest forecasting upward motion in a 5% rise.
Payroll gains are expected in nine of the 12 major industry sectors during July to September, particularly in education and health services (13%), leisure and hospitality (7%), government (4%) and transportation and utilities (4%). Employers in the professional and business services sector expect a flat hiring pace in the third quarter, while employers in the information (-3%) and other services (-3%) sectors expect layoffs.
“The past weeks and months have seen the labor market transform overnight, with many industries halting hiring instantly, while others including healthcare, ecommerce and logistics saw immediate growth,” said Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup North America.
“These numbers reveal the depth of the impact this crisis has had on hiring intentions across our country, yet we are beginning to see very early signs for cautious optimism. As states open up, essential roles remain in demand, as well as tech skills including software and app developers, and even new roles like temperature checkers and contact tracers.”